Chickens coming home to roost - Straight from the Hip by J Mulraj
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Investing in India - Straight from the Hip by J Mulraj
Chickens coming home to roost A  A  A

PRINTER FRIENDLY | ARCHIVES
1 JANUARY 2011


As a vegetarian I am hesitant to comment on chickens, but do feel that the chickens hatched by incompetent governance would be coming home to roost in early 2011, and would have their impact on stock market performance.

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Political chickens: There are several states in which there is potential trouble brewing. The most imminent is Andhra Pradesh, where the Srikrishna Committee report over the carving up of the State and creating Telangana, has been handed over to the Government and would be unveiled on Jan 6. The Government is preparing for violent agitation. In Rajasthan the Gujjar community is renewing its agitation to be declared 'backward' in order to qualify for a 5% job quota. Trouble is also brewing in West Bengal, and can escalate in the run up to the May state elections. These are the result of the divide and rule policies introduced by the British, perfected by the Congress and emulated by the opposition, dividing society on the basis of caste, creed, religion and economic criteria.

Democracy chickens: A functioning democracy requires institutions of democracy to function. The BJP opposition has filibustered the winter session of Parliament, insisting on the establishment of a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) to probe into the telecom 2G scam. Previous JPCs have not resulted in any significant action to punish wrongdoers because the Indian polity have perfected the art of public back stabbing to conceal private back scratching! The Prime Minister who, as Finance Minister in the 90s, was given political protection by then Prime Minister, Narasimha Rao, does not seem to have the political sagacity and courage to do the same as Prime Minister, and to put his foot down firmly to bring scamsters to task. The political deadlock will freeze any attempt at further economic reforms, badly needed. These are outlined in the economic chickens, below.

Economic chickens: With Parliament not working several important economic pieces of legislation will not move forward, for which there is a crying need. The oft delayed GST will be postponed; this has the potential to add 1 - 2 % to India's GDP. Governments ruled by the opposition are opposing this sensible legislation purely on political grounds, never mind the interest of the country. Changes in labour laws are absolutely essential; current laws favour a small minority of organised labour at the cost of the vast majority of those outside its purview. Flexible labour policies are needed in order to provide jobs to the growing population; India will overtake China in population by 2025. For lack of jobs there is too much strain on agriculture leading to inequities; 60% of population depends on agriculture for their livelihood, and earn 14% of national income. This can't last. It will have huge social implications.

The policy of subsidising petro products is crazy even by Kafkaesque standards and needs to be urgently changed but cannot, with Parliament in a state of suspended animation. In the current year, the Government will pay for no more than a third of the subsidy bill created by its own policies, with upstream companies (ONGC, OIL, GAIL) bearing a third and downstream oil marketing companies (IOC, HPCL, BPCL) bearing a third. This third share is expected to be Rs 23,333 crores in fiscal 2011, which will drive the OMCs into the red. This will hamper their ability to make a follow on public offer, thus hurting the disinvestment effort (to hit the target of Rs 40,000 crores, the FPOs of PFC and RINL will be fast tracked).

Now this subsidised fuel policy is giving a false picture of India's economic health. Subsidised diesel is falsely bringing down transport costs of companies; when the subsidy goes, as it must, they will become that much less competitive. Subsidised petrol is driving up demand for cars (sales up 25% in December) and creating a problem for the future when private transport will need to be curtailed in the wake of disappearing fossil fuels. China, for example, is better governed - Beijing has introduced an upper limit on sale of cars this year. Our political leadership is too busy hurling abuses and chairs at each other rather than think of the future and plan massive public network of transport (trains, underground and/or overhead, buses and trams). Instead, it encourages, through petrol subsidy, the creation of an infrastructure to manufacture cars, since this boosts its revenues and avoids its responsibility to spend on public transport infrastructure. These chickens will come to roost one day.

Compare the Rs 23,333 crores subsidy burden for petro products (whose use ought to be discouraged rather than encouraged) with the paltry figure of Rs 46 crores provided as subsidy for solar power, which really ought to be encouraged. Blessed as India is with ample sunlight, our leaders ought to be looking to the policies of the German Government to encourage the use of solar energy. Germany, thanks to the late Dr Hermann Sheer who campaigned for solar energy, introduced a feed in tariff for solar power which was double the feed out tariff and guaranteed for 20 years. This meant that those who invest in solar power units on their rooftops and supply any surplus power thus generated and not used by them to the grid, would be paid twice the amount they would pay as consumers of grid power. This has not only resulted in a significant growth in solar power in Germany but has also provided employment to an army of 'solar roof investors' who look for empty rooftops and sign deals with the home owners. Such investors now number more than those employed in Germany's auto industry! Surely, if we spend Rs 23,333 crores under a similar feed in tariff for solar power, instead of to subsidise petrol and diesel, we would be better prepared for the future. If only the politicians stopped looting the country and started thinking about the future!

Partly thanks to increased consumption of petro products, oil imports are rising and India's current account deficit is, therefore, also rising. RBI Governor Dr Subba Rao cautions against the rising deficit and the way it is increasingly financed, by portfolio flows (which are short term in nature and whose exit can disrupt the economy). Dr Subba Rao also warns about uncontrolled fiscal deficit. For the 8 months to Nov, this appears under control thanks to buoyancy in tax collections and realisation from sale of telecom spectrum. Had the sale been fairly conducted, the fiscal deficit may have been lower.

Another cause of worry is rising food inflation. Excessive monsoons in parts of India will lead to higher prices with social consequences.

The sensex gained 435 points to end the week, and the year, at 20509, and the Nifty added 122 to end the week at 6134.

There does not seem to be much by way of a bullish trigger to propel the rally further. Come Jan 6 the Srikrishna report would be made public and can have a negative fallout. Caution is advised and better opportunities to buy would present themselves later. A happy new year to all readers.

J Mulraj is a stock market columnist and observer of long standing. His weekly column on stock markets has run for over 27 years. An MBA from IIM Calcutta, he has been a member of the BSE. He is Conference Head - India, for Euromoney. A keen observer of events and trends, he writes in a lucid yet readable style and takes up issues on behalf of the individual investor. Nothing pleases him more than a reader who confesses having no interest in stock markets yet being a reader of his columns. His other interests include reading, both fiction and non-fiction, bridge, snooker and chess.

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12 Responses to "Chickens coming home to roost"
rj
Jan 7, 2011
Mr. Damani.

The same or better/worse privileges are also available if you cross the border illegally into the U.S.

Unfortunately or fortunately these are two democracies that are not very well governed.
Like 
N Kanitkar
Jan 5, 2011
Your concerns on the subsidy given to petrol,diesel and related products is well taken. There should not be subsidies on these at all. After all, the rich are filling their coffers with not only these subsidies but also the ones like SEZs which is a scam for acquiring land at dirt cheap prices. However, your take on the amount of sunlight the country receives is a little far from the truth. Contrary to popular perception, insolation is not the same as useful sunlight and solar panels are not found in nature implying that in making of the solar panel and its apparatus and the factory that produces it, more energy has already been consumed than the amount of energy the solar panel would produce in its life cycle. These energy input/output perspectives have to be calculated to be understood.regards Like 
S.K.Damani
Jan 4, 2011
After having read your this article, I would like to attach the following message, I wish you would circulate to all Indians. Thanks Damani



Bitter Truth !!!!!!!

If you cross the " The North Korean " border illegally, you get ..... 12 years hard labour in an isolated prison .....

If you cross the " Iranian " border illegally, you get ..... detained indefinitely .....

If you cross the " Afghan " border illegally, you get ..... shot .....

If you cross the " Saudi Arabian " border illegally, you get ..... jailed .....

If you cross the " Chinese " border illegally, you get ..... kidnapped and may be never heard of - again .....

If you cross the " Venezuelan " border illegally, you get ..... branded as a spy and your fate sealed .....

If you cross the " Cuban " border illegally, you get ..... thrown into a political prison to rot .....

If you cross the " British " border illegally, you get ..... arrested, prosecuted, sent to prison and be deported after serving your sentence .....

Now ..... if you were to cross the " Indian " border illegally, you get .....

1. A ration card

2. A passport ( even more than one - if you please ! )

3. A driver's licence

4. A voter identity card

5. Credit cards

6. A Haj subsidy

7. Job reservation

8. Special privileges for minorities

9. Government housing on subsidized rent

10. Loan to buy a house

11. Free education

12. Free health care

13. A lobbyist in New Delhi , with a bunch of media morons and a bigger bunch of human rights activists promoting your " cause "

14. The right to talk about secularism, which you have not heard about in your own country !
15. And of-course ..... voting rights to elect corrupt politicians who will promote your community for their selfish interest in securing your votes !!!

16. and right to fight election for MLA or MP
Hats off ..... to the .....

A. Corrupt and communal Indian politicians
B. The inefficient and corrupt Indian police force
C. The silly pseudo-secularists in India , who promote traitors staying here
D. The amazingly lenient Indian courts and legal system.
That's why people like Afzal Guru are still alive, same will happen with Kasab.

E. WE self centered Indian citizens, who are not bothered about the dangers to our own country.

F. The illogically brainless human-rights activists, who think that terrorists deserve to be dealt with by archaic laws meant for an era, when human beings were human beings.
Like 
Raj
Jan 4, 2011
Hi,

most of the analyst keep commenting about removal of subsidies on petro products. Why nobody comments about exorbitant pricing of petro products in India.

Why can't govt. remove the excise and VAT from petro products to make it cheaper to Public?
Like 
kaushik
Jan 3, 2011
Congress has never encouraged bipartisanship. As to fillibustering, what is wrong with a JPC probe ? What option does the opposition have? The latest pronouncements of the FM clearly show the intentions of ruling party to shield the scamsters by denying the scam itself. Whom is Congress trying to protect from probe by a Parliamentary Committee. Past performance need not be an indicator of JPC in this case too. Alternatively, Congress could have suspended all fillibusters and conducted the proceedings without them. Like 
Deepak
Jan 2, 2011
this is a very good and informative article/report and each point has been supported with facts and figures. Really, the situation is very precarious and even a slightest mis-management on part of Government will lead to disaster. India needs to open-up its shores to FDI and the FII flow need not be checked but equal opportunity needs to be created for FDI inflow. Like 
Vijayakumar Madhira
Jan 1, 2011
Talking about solar power - for sometime now, I find it funny for owners of commercial buildings to have a glass facade which would let in the light thereby cutting down the use of power for lighting. Instead they use blinds to cut down the sunshine & invest heavily on light fittings etc. The glass facade can actually be solar panels which would generate the power required internally and probably also for the air-conditioning too. Saves a huge costs and helps the nation in conserving fossil fuels. Like 
R Swaminathan
Jan 1, 2011
Wish you all a happy New Year. I am a regular reader and am impressed by Mulraj and Ajit Dayal. I live in Shanghai and I compare us with China with first hand experience. In China there is Governanace and direction albeit a one party Community controlled state capitalism; albeit lack of freedom; albeit strict controls. They are not drifting like we are. I am amused by the media and our what I call National Approach to the recent Spectrum Issue . In my view incompetence of the Government is more serious an issue than the untraceble , canker of corruption which incurably has griiped our Nation. A Govt not capable of getting due revenue to the people of the country has no business to be in governance. Of what use is Mr. Manmohan Singh a great scholar in economics if his Govt can not sell and get the right price for the National asset like Spectrum Waves . They should all quit for underselling a precious asset , that of the people, punished for the same as it is the Money of the People!It is sad that the political opposition is equally incompetent with no moral authority. Cho Ramaswamy, the leading political observer who I greatly admire has rightly pointed in an editorial in his Tamil Magazine ( Thuglak - Named after the foolish Moghul king) that we need a selfless Mahatma to free India from Indians!
Swami
Like 
Om Prakash Sharma
Jan 1, 2011
Wnenever I read you I like to congratulate you. But I doubt any politicians read you. Like 
sunil
Jan 1, 2011
excellent .
very few people in the country dare think and face the facts.
keep up the good work
Like 
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