After the IPL tango, the Congress tap dance - Straight from the Hip by J Mulraj
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Investing in India - Straight from the Hip by J Mulraj
After the IPL tango, the Congress tap dance A  A  A

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24 APRIL 2010


Last week's news was dominated by the shenanigans at IPL, India's most popular global brand, and the investigations by the Government into misbehaviour by Lalit Modi, who had conceived the idea and popularized this format of the game. It is alleged that he did the tango with team owners, to get stakes for himself and relatives, with the media agency, for a commission, and, perhaps, with those involved in match fixing. The investigations will result, as they ought to, into appropriate punishment for any wrongdoing. However, it also brings out the sheer hypocrisy of our attitude towards money.

Had IPL and BCCI been a company, instead of a trust to promote the activities of cricket, Modi would have got sweat equity or options for his efforts to conceive of and promote this version of the game. But we Indians are wont to publicly decry the garnering of excess wealth even as we privately covet it. This cannot be an excuse for wrongdoing, if any, by Modi, only a backdrop of how twisted things can become if we profess one to want thing whilst desiring another.

A similar hypocrisy is witnessed in the grant of a tax free status for agriculture, on the pretext of helping poor farmers. Most of them are subsistence farmers, earning barely enough to make two ends meet. The tax free incomes helps the larger farmers, many absentee, who then dictate agricultural policy often inimical to the interests of the marginal ones, as also corrupt officials who use the tax free status to launder payments for facilitating transactions.

After the IPL tango, we are now witnessing the Congress tap dance! Revelations that the Government has tapped into, and recorded phone conversations of leaders such as Digvijay Singh (Congress), Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has achieved a remarkable turnaround of the state, Prakash Karat (CPM) and Sharad Pawar (NCP) are bound to lead to a furore when Parliament opens Monday.

So if anything can derail the India story, it is this sort of poor governance. Else, as highlighted in the pre IPO analyst meet of Jaiprakash Infra Ltd, there is an enormous potential for growth. The company is setting up a 6 lane all concrete highway between Noida and Agra, what would cut travel time to around 2 – 2 ½ hours, and, at 5 places along this highway, would create new townships of 1-2 m. people each. If the plans of the Roads Minister Kamal Nath fructify, India would have, as per a McKinsey study, developed 300 new townships, each with a population of 1 m. This essentially means a rural to urban migration of 300 m. people, the largest in human history, which would set off a tidal wave of economic growth. The 5 new townships of Jayprakash Infra are part of these 300 new townships.

India, China and other emerging nations are also leading the way in innovation, especially in low cost technology. The Economist of April 15 carries a cover story on this mentioning, in particular, the Tata Nano and Bharti Airtel's model by which it slashed costs of telephony. Or the low cost, environmentally friendly refrigerator, Chotukool, developed by Godrej affordable for rural India. Another is Swach, the cheapest water purifier, developed by Tatas. Tata Motors is soon to introduce a car, being developed by French inventor Guy Negre, that would run on compressed air!

So here we have a heady mix. On the one hand are the amazing entrepreneurial efforts bringing out affordable products suitable to emerging markets, and with the developed world recognizing the talent in India. The Economist article says that the Fortune 500 companies have established 98 R&D facilities in China and 63 in India. The spend on infrastructure will be transformative. The high savings rate will, over time, reduce our dependence on foreign investors.

On the other hand are the examples of double standards and abysmal governance. Also the inability of the Government to let go of its companies and to concentrate on doing what a Government is supposed to do. For example, it has decided, last week, to pump in an additional Rs 15,000 crores into the numerous public sector banks it holds a majority stake in. The growth of the banks is curtailed if the Government insists on retaining a majority stake, and cannot pump in more because it wastes money. The result? Today, the top 3 global banks, by market cap., are Chinese, which has 5 in the top 20 banks in the world. India has none. The most valuable bank is ICBC, established only in 1987. Our own SBI, which has a 200 year old dividend history (forget profit history, forget history, it has paid dividends for 200 years, a testimony to its financial strength), is not even amongst the top 100. And we are masters at destroying our own brands; witness the shenanigans at IPL.

Corporate results for Q4 are good. RIL posted a 30% growth in net profits for Q4 to Rs 4710 crores, although Dalal Street, like Oliver, wanted more. Now the three Government majority owned oil marketing companies, IOC, HPCL and BPCL, are not going to declare unaudited results; even as RIL shows a 30% growth in PAT, they are swimming in red ink, another example of the Government's ability to cut its own legs. ONGC is belatedly being given the same price as RIL for its natural gas, at $ 4.2 /mbtu, which would boost its bottom line, although, for reasons unknown, OIL gets a lower price yet.

Hero Honda's PAT was up 49%, TCS was up 47%, Sesa Goa's was up 121% at 1212 crores and Axis Bank up 39%.

Globally, Europe remains on tenterhooks. The EU has bailed out Greece, but problems remain. Its Government has concealed the extent of its poor financing; the fiscal deficit is now shown as 13.6% of GDP, as against the 12.7% earlier reported. There would need to be a lot of belt tightening; a lesson that our Finance Minister should draw upon to rein in expenses now rather than wait for them to become unmanageable and be forced to do so later. Any further bad news from Greece would be a disaster for European banks and can lead to a domino like effect for other shaky countries like Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain.

The US seems to be faring better; it is a more flexible economy than the Eurozone. Sales of new single-family homes were 411,000 in March 2010 (seasonally adjusted), 26.9 percent above the previous month.

Last week the BSE-Sensex rose 103 points to end at 17694, and the NSE-Nifty rose 41 to end at 5304. Investors should watch the fallout out of the phone tapping controversy in India, and the rollout of events in Greece. The Indian story is good but we are our own worst enemies.

J Mulraj is a stock market columnist and observer of long standing. His weekly column on stock markets has run for over 27 years. An MBA from IIM Calcutta, he has been a member of the BSE. He is Conference Head - India, for Euromoney. A keen observer of events and trends, he writes in a lucid yet readable style and takes up issues on behalf of the individual investor. Nothing pleases him more than a reader who confesses having no interest in stock markets yet being a reader of his columns. His other interests include reading, both fiction and non-fiction, bridge, snooker and chess.

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11 Responses to "After the IPL tango, the Congress tap dance"
Sriraman
Apr 27, 2010
Thakral and Lakshman Pardhanani are right and Rajagopaln is wrong. Only Subhaschandra of Zee TV and Kapil Dev can be thought of as 'conceiving' the idea of a cricket league, though it was modelled after the sports leagues in Europe & the US. Then Modi, using the might of BCCI and ICC, crushed ICL. Barring players from playing for their countries because they play for a rival (commercial) league is atrocious! I wonder why ICL did not sue IPL, BCCI & ICC for restrictive and anti-competitive trade practices. They had a very strong case there. Like 
R.Radhakrishnan
Apr 26, 2010
I saw Mr Lakshman Pardhanani's comments after I wrote mine. I am in agreement with his views as I also came back to India after several years abroad. The most visible negative is the gradual devaluation of vlue system and corresponding valuation of hypocritical thinking. We do not want to accept the negatives and still cling on to our hoary past. That is the height of hypocrisy we have grown to.
Corruption has been the cancer that has brought us to this stage. I remember the late Rajaji openly warning the nation through the columns of SWARAJYA against the ills of corruption. How true it has become.
We badly need role models.
Like 
R.Radhakrishnan
Apr 26, 2010
Mr.Mulraj has done well to highlight the essential aspects that worry India, politically and economically. Our hypocritical behavior in the matter of money is well brought out.
Rightly, he displays the frustration of an honest tax-payer to the happenings around us.
The only hope for our becoming a true India is by bringing to the open the wrongdoings of our politicians and others in public life, the internalised hypocrisy of Indian smarties. Otherwise, there will be more frustration and cynicism leading to our self-destruction as a nation.
Mr.Mulraj has been equally candid in bringing out the bright aspects of our economy and business environment. All said and done, our business houses are behaving much better than our politicians.
God save this country.
R.Radhakrishnan
Like 
Amol
Apr 26, 2010
Nice article Mr. Mulraj. On IPL row, i wonder how conviniently LM has been made culprit, what about others?? Was the misbehaviour by modi of which everybody is talking about possible without involvement of some very powerful people associated to BCCI. Were they unaware of everything going on behind the IPL curtains.

I think its not one person, but the character of whole society which is changing to worse. Issues like IPLgate is just the refelaction of the same.
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K.D.Viswanaathan
Apr 25, 2010
If price rise and IPL controversy gave MPs belonging to the opposition parties in both houses of Indian Parliament enough serious issues and exxcellent opportunity for launching a fierce attack on the policies pursued by the UPA government, the phone tapping revelation has given them yet another fine opportunity to embarrass the government. Misfortune never comes in single is an old saying. It stands proved in the case of the present Central government. Like 
LAKSHMAN PARDHANANI
Apr 25, 2010
I am 72 and came to live in India in October 2005, after a stay of 41 years in the West, hoping to find an honest society in which I could spend my last days on this earth. My experiences during this period at a personal level have been gruesome and I am in the process of filing 3 applications to the Courts for infractions of the Indian Penal code by people I have had unavoidable business contacts with.
My personal experiences pale into insignificance when I consider the gargantuan levels at which fraud and corruption exists at every level of Indian society. It is as if honest persons and honest dealings have simply vanished from the Indian DNA. Landlords,shopkeepers,service personnel,not to mention the police, the bureaucrats, and the politicians all join in, in a symphony of corrupt practices, defrauding tenants, customers, employers and the long suffering aam aadmi, setting up an ambience in our society that we should all be ashamed of.
It is in this context that we should look at Modi, the IPL, and the BCCI. None of them is above suspicion. Modi is undoubtedly a rogue but he has been responsible for bringing a lot of entertainment and glitz to a society that could do with as bit of cheering up. If he is guity of criminal behaviour he must be punished but so must the other bigger fish, if found culpable. Does the present Government have the integrity to do that??
Ideally we should sack the entire BCCI, THE IPL COUNCIL,and Modi, and give the IPL brand to Kapil Dev to run for a salary of 1 million dollars per year.
Like 
rajagopalan
Apr 24, 2010
Thakral... Every concept has conceived by somebody and followed in several forms by others..Probably ICL concept came from other so many concepts...nothing could be 100% original...If patent has been violated ICL can sue... Like 
rajagopalan
Apr 24, 2010
misbehaviour by Lalit Modi??????
How did u come to that conclusion.
So your "misbehaviour" in the email

Like 
Ram
Apr 24, 2010
We are good in side tracking real issues & diverting to others.People keep enjoying fruits of dishonesty.
Biggest problem is corruption.
Public in general is led by their original linking,no one thinks beyond. This is because we think what can we do? let us also enjoy in general.
We need purpose & strong national feelings.Almost all leaders have skeletons to hide.
Unless people help them selves Naxal type movements will increase.
Like 
shoyeb
Apr 24, 2010
Very well said "we are our own worst enemy." The IPL fiasco is the burning example. On the corporate front, it is ridiculous to see that none of our banks are in top 100 global banks despite of solid business models. Like 
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