Dull Start to the Week; Oil & Gas Stocks Lead the Losses
Closing

Indian share markets continued to trade marginally higher in the afternoon session as corporate results kick off later this week. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed higher by 33 points and the NSE Nifty finished up by 9 points. The S&P BSE Mid Cap finished down by 0.1% while S&P BSE Small Cap finished up by 0.6%. Gains were largely seen in realty stocks and FMCG stocks while energy stocks and power stocks witnessed majority of the selling activity.

Asian stock markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.76% and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.30%. The Hang Seng lost 0.46%. European markets are lower today with shares in London off the most. The FTSE 100 is down 0.21% while France's CAC 40 is off 0.14% and Germany's DAX is lower by 0.01%.

Rupee was trading at Rs 65.31 against the US$ in the afternoon session. Oil prices were trading at US$ 49.31 at the time of writing.

In news from steel sector, SAIL share price finished on an encouraging note (up 0.8%) after the company entered into a strategic agreement with POSCO for wide ranging technical services for SAIL's IISCO Steel Plant (ISP) at Burnpur to assist in realizing the benefits from its new and state of the art plant.

SAIL-ISP, which has already completed its modernization and expansion, is significantly ramping up production from its new facilities and the 0.55 Million tons Wire rod mill of SAIL-ISP shall soon be producing world class wire rods in special grades to meet both domestic and international requirements.

This agreement is a result of an earlier MoU on Technical Collaboration for Operational improvement and Human Resource Development which SAIL and POSCO had entered in November 2016.

In news from the economy, amid worries over an economic growth slowdown, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel has raised hopes of upturn in economic growth of the country soon. RBI Governor expects the country's growth to pick up in last two quarters of the current financial year (FY18) to exceed 7%, based on high frequency real economy indicators suggesting that growth will pick up in the third and fourth quarters.

Urjit Patel said that the economy is recovering, after gross domestic product (GDP) growth slipped to its three-year low of 5.7% in the April-June quarter, but reiterated that for them the country's growth is important but not at cost of inflation, adding that the country need to be a careful and should aim at achieving the inflation target without losing sight of supporting economic growth.

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The statement of the RBI governor came in backdrop of some calls for lower interest rates, as RBI left rates unchanged at a review by the monetary policy committee (MPC).

RBI Governor pointed that in the medium term, the RBI aims for annual inflation of 4% with the flexbility of plus/minus 2% on either side to make room for food price volatility and so in view of this the monetary policy committee (MPC) will strive to achieve its 4% inflation target on a 'durable basis'.

In news from the oil & gas sector, as per an article in The Livemint, ONGC is likely to sell some of its stake in Indian Oil Corp. Ltd to institutional investors like Life Insurance Corp. of India (LIC) to part-fund its over Rs 340 billion acquisition of refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd (HPCL).

ONGC holds 13.77% stake in India's biggest refiner Indian Oil. It has another 4.87% stake in GAIL India Ltd worth of Rs 16 billion.

Meanwhile, ONGC has received clearance from the Coastal Regulatory Zone for setting up a seawater desalination plant at its Uran unit in Raigad, Maharashtra at a cost of Rs 2.66 billion.

The proposal is to set up a seawater desalination plant with a capacity to process 20 million litres per day. The proposed site is about 380 meters away from the high tide line of Arabian Sea, along the western coast of India.

In another development, Indian Oil Corp is willing to buy state-owned GAIL (India) Ltd or OIL India Ltd. Indian Oil also plans to open offices in Bangladesh and Myanmar in the next 4-6 months, Sharma told reporters at the India Energy Forum by Ceraweek in New Delhi.

ONGC share price and IOC share price finished the trading day down by 1.6% and 0.2% on the BSE.

In news from IPO segment, the initial public offering (IPO) of Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX) was subscribed 5% on Monday, the first day of share sale.

As of 2pm, the IPO received bids for 293,526 shares against the total issue size of 6,065,009 shares. The IPO will close on 11 October.

IEX, India's largest energy exchange, has priced its shares in the band of Rs1,645-1,650. At the upper end of the price band, the initial share sale values the firm at Rs 50 billion.

The market euphoria is something similar to what was seen in 2007-08. When everyone around you is clamoring to get a piece of the IPO pie, it makes sitting tight difficult. And, why should you sit tight when stocks like Avenue Supermart lets you pocket a cool 100% gain from day 1 of the listing?

History suggests that these cases are few and far between. More than 70% of the IPOs listed in 2007 and 2008 are in the red, even today when the Sensex is at an all-time high.

BSE IPO Index vis-a-vis Sensex

This allows us to stay on the fence when it comes to investing in IPOs. But it doesn't make sense to completely ignore this space. For every Reliance Power - like issue, there have been issues like Maruti, TCS, and Jubilant Foodworks Ltd (with returns over 4,000%, 1,000% and 500% respectively) that have created immense wealth for shareholders. A merit-based selection primarily including valuation, business, and management quality is the logical way to go about it.

And here's a note from Profit Hunter:

Coal India is among the top gainers in the Nifty 50 index today. It's up 2%.

The last time we reviewed the stock, it was trading near 240 support level. The level acted as a strong support in August 2013 and February 2014. We had mentioned the possibility of the stock bottoming out at this level.

In fact, the stock reversed from the 240 level, and it is currently trading at 282 - up more than 17% from 240.

But now the stock is trading near its resistance level as seen by the red horizontal line in the chart below.

What will be interesting to see is, if the stock can continue this momentum or will it find a resistance at the current level.

Coal India Rallied 2% for the Day
Coal India Rallied 2% for the Day 


Sensex Trades on a Volatile Note; FMCG Stocks Lead Gains
01:30 pm

After opening the day in green, share markets in India witnessed choppy trades and pared early gains and are currently trading marginally above the dotted line. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the consumer durables sector and stocks in the FMCG sector leading the gains. Stocks in the energy sector are trading in red.

The BSE Sensex is trading up by 26 points (up 0.1%), and the NSE Nifty is trading up by 7 points (down 0.1%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.1%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.6%. The rupee is trading at 65.35 to the US$.

In news from stocks in the aviation sector. According to an article in Livemint, the Tata Group is considering buying Air India.

According to the article, Tata Sons Ltd executive chairman N. Chandrasekaran has said the group will look at Air India Ltd disinvestment being executed by the government currently. The group, however, needs more details from the government on the process.

In 2000, the Tata group and Singapore Airlines had expressed their interest in acquiring up to 40% of Air India. In 2013, after a meeting with then aviation minister, Ratan Tata had said the Tata group would be interested in buying a stake in Air India if the government were to privatize the airline.

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Notably, Air India was launched in 1932 by J.R.D. Tata as Tata Airlines. Its name was changed to the current one in 1946. The government decided to take it over in 1953.

Tata's interest in the airline comes at a time when India's aviation industry is on a high-growth trajectory. India's domestic air passenger traffic has almost doubled in the past six years. This is on the back of strong economic growth and emergence of low-fare airlines. Indian carriers have now set their sights on International traffic. Indian carriers have been slowly increasing their market share. It is important to note that foreign carriers still dominate international traffic to and from India.

Domestic Airlines Fly High in Foreign Skies

As per the report by rating agency ICRA, the share of domestic airlines in India's international traffic increased from 30.1% in FY14 to 35.1% in FY17. In the coming years, this share is expected to increase as the government replaced the 5/20 rule with 0/20 rule. The 5/20 rule mandates that airlines need to fly at least 5 years domestically and should possess 20 aircraft. The new 0/20 rule does away with the five-year requirement, but carriers will still need to demonstrate a fleet of 20 aircraft.

It is important to note that certain industries have relatively dull economics compared to others. And investors would do well to keep this in mind, particularly in the case of aviation. Investors need to understand the industry dynamics before buying up aviation stocks.

As Tanushree point out in a recent edition of the 5 Minute Wrapup:

  • Airlines is an industry that lures investors in with its glitz, glamour and growth potential. But what glitters ain't always gold, my dear reader. The industry's costs are massive. So is debt. Competition is intense. And fortunes change with the winds of international developments. And after all that altitude, there is not a landing strip in sight - many report losses and the return on capital is extremely poor.

    So when returns from capital-intensive, debt-heavy companies start nosediving, and stock prices fall, dear investor, remember my safety-first rule, dump these gruesome stocks, and head for safer ground.

Moving on to news from stocks in the IPO space. MAS Financial Services Ltd's initial public offering (IPO) was subscribed 2.19 times on Monday, the second day of the shares sale.

As of 12pm, the IPO received bids for 15,605,696 shares against the total issue size of 7,124,910 shares, according to data available with NSE. The Rs 4.6 billion IPO will close on 10 October.

MAS Financial is a Gujarat-based non-banking finance company (NBFC), primarily focused on middle and low-income customer segments. The company offers business and financing products such as micro-enterprise loans, small and medium enterprise loans, two-wheeler loans, commercial vehicle loans and housing loans.

To know our view on the IPO, click here.

Meanwhile, Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) kicks off its IPO today. The company has fixed a price band of Rs 1,645-1,650 per share for its public issue and will remain open from 9 to 11 October. It aims to raise about Rs 6 million through the share sale.

IEX is India's first power exchange, which provides automated trading platform for electricity and renewable energy certificates.

We have released a recommendation note for the IPO. You can find it here.

With multiple offerings lined up, it becomes difficult to evaluate and pick out the best opportunity, if any exists. Not all IPOs will have fortunes like the D-Mart IPO, as the IPO game is inherently rigged against the retail investor.

We don't need to back all the IPOs to get rich. But a few good IPOs could certainly become the multibagger in your portfolio in a few years.

We have come out with a special report titled, How to Get Rich with IPOs. It is a comprehensive report that aims to cut through all the hoopla surrounding IPOs. This guide will show you how to safely profit from the 2017 IPO rush.


Indian Indices Trade Marginally Higher; Consumer Durable Stocks Witness Buying
11:30 am

Stock markets in India are presently trading near the dotted line with positive bias. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the consumer durables sector and banking sector witnessing maximum buying interest. Power stocks are trading in the red.

The BSE Sensex is trading up 61 points (up 0.2%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 11 points (up 0.1%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading flat, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.5%. the rupee is trading at 65.33 to the US dollar.

In the news from the telecom sector, Tata Teleservices (TTSL) is witnessing selling pressure today. Most of the losses came after the company's management and representatives from the promoter group met Department of Telecommunications (DoT) officials and discussed ways of surrendering or selling their existing spectrum holdings.

As per reports, the company was preparing an exit plan for most of its 5,000-odd employees, while transferring only a small part of its employees to other group companies.

Following the above development, Tata Teleservices will be one of the first big Tata units to be shut in the group's 149-year-old history.

Presently, Tata Teleservices share price is trading down by around 12%.

Market participants are also cheering the recent amendments in the GST regime. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on Friday finalised a slew of relaxation measures bringing significant relief to small and medium businesses and exporters. It also lowered GST rates for 27 items.

Rates on food items such as khakra, dried sliced mango, ICDS food packets, unbranded namkeen, and unbranded Ayurvedic medicine have been lowered to 5%, as have rates of waste paper, plastic and rubber e-waste. Similarly, the GST rate for job work services provided by Zaria workers, imitation jewellery, printing and food items has been cut to 5%.

Similarly, to lower the compliance burden on small and medium businesses, the threshold for the composition scheme has been increased to an annual turnover of Rs 10 million from the earlier Rs 7.5 million.

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In the news from the IPO space, the Rs 10 billion initial public offer (IPO) of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) is set to open from today for subscriptions.

The company has fixed a price band of Rs 1,645-1,650 per share for its public issue and the last day of subscription for the same is 11th October.

As per the news, the company has already raised about Rs 3 billion from 23 anchor investors by alloting 18,19,501 shares at a price of Rs 1,650 per share. The list included ICICI Prudential MF, Birla Sunlife MF, Birla Sunlife Trustee Company, and SBI Mutal Fund (MF).

IEX is India's first power exchange, which provides automated trading platform for electricity and renewable energy certificates.

We'll shortly release our IPO note for the above IPO. You can access the same in our IPO section.

Speaking of IPOs, 2017 is set to be a record year for initial public offerings. However, is it worth investing in IPOs?

If past record is anything to go by, barring a few names that have quality, most IPO companies fail to live up to the hype. Also, the BSE IPO index has underperformed the Sensex over the past decade, as can be seen from the chart below:

BSE IPO Index vis-a-vis Sensex

So, an investor blindly following the IPO hype might have done better following the Sensex.

But does that mean that we should completely ignore IPOs? Here's a snip from a recent issue of The 5 Minute WrapUp answering the same...

  • While it's necessary to be cautious on IPOs, you don't need to completely ignore them either.

    For every Reliance Power - like issue, there have been issues like Maruti, TCS, and Jubilant Foodworks Ltd (with returns over 4,000%, 1,000% and 500% respectively) that have made investors rich.

    The percentage of such issues, unfortunately, is very low (Check this IPO performance snapshot). The odds are stacked against a retail investor.

    A careful evaluation of each IPO on its merits - its fundamentals, and most importantly, valuations - is the only way to spot future multi-baggers.

To learn how to navigate the treacherous world of IPOs, do read our special report on finding money-spinning IPOs.


Sensex Opens Flat; Energy & PSU Stocks Top Losers
09:30 am

Asian stock markets are higher today ahead of China Caixin services PMI. The Shanghai Composite is up 1.18% while the Hang Seng is up 0.27%. The Nikkei 225 is trading up by 0.30%. US stocks closed mostly lower on Friday after data showed the labour market experienced its first contraction in seven years.

Back home, share markets in India have opened the day on a flat note. The BSE Sensex is trading lower by 13 points while the NSE Nifty is trading lower by 3 points. The BSE Mid Cap and BSE Small Cap index both opened the day up by 0.3%.

Sectoral indices have opened the day on a mixed note with stocks from healthcare sector and consumer durables sector leading the pack of gainers. While, energy stocks and PSU stocks have opened the day in red. The rupee is trading at 65.23 to the US$.

Pharma stocks are trading mixed today with Sun Pharma and Ajanta Pharma being the most active stocks. Zydus Cadila has received final approval from the US health regulator to market Amitriptyline hydrochloride tablets used for treatment of depression in the American market.

The United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) granted approval to market the tablets in strengths of 10 mg, 25 mg, 50 mg, 75 mg, 100 mg and 150 mg.

Further, the drug, used in treating depression, will be manufactured at the group's formulations facility at SEZ Ahmedabad.

Notably, the group now has more than 160 approvals and has so far filed over 300 abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) since the commencement of the filing process by the company.

One shall note that, USFDA alerts on Indian pharma companies have increased over the past few years. Regulators used to visit the plants every two years. Now they come every eight months.

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Increasing inspections has led to a total of 41 import alerts in the past eight years. This clearly signifies increased USFDA scrutiny on Indian pharma firms.

The list of pharma sector woes is long. But, is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Here's what Sarvajeet Bodas, our Research analyst wrote about the sector in the recent edition of The 5 Minute WrapUp:

  • "While short-term pain is expected, companies with strong R&D capabilities and compliant plants will do well over the long term. The uncertainties make it important to be stock specific in the sector. It is important to look for companies that have the competence and staying power to overcome the challenges."

So, what is key to identifying potential multibagger stocks? How does one pick them at the right time and ride them to their full potential? How many multibaggers do you really need to achieve the big riches that you desire?

Most importantly, are there any stocks right now that could turn out to be multibaggers? Click here to know everything that you need to know right now about mutlibagger stocks...

Moving on to the news from the banking sector. As per an article in a leading financial daily, Punjab National Bank (PNB) has put assets of as many as 32 bad loans with outstanding loan exposure of Rs 11.8 billion on the block in an effort to bring down its non-performing assets (NPAs).

These NPAs include Hanung Toys and Textile, Harbs India, United Foods and Harman Textile. PNB has a total exposure of Rs 7.7 billion to the consortium that extended the loan to Hanung Toys and Textile, the reports noted.

Notably, the listed toys and textile company is the biggest defaulter in the list with consortium lending to the tune of Rs 29.6 billion.

For the quarter ended June 2017, the gross NPAs in absolute term stood at Rs 5772.1 billion, while the net NPAs were Rs 3457.3 billion. In percentage terms, the gross NPAs declined marginally to 13.7% of gross advances as on 30 June 2017 from 13.8% a year earlier.

However, on a sequential basis, gross NPAs increased from 12.5% as on 31 March 2017. Net NPAs came down, both yearly and sequentially, to 8.7% of the net advances.

The provisioning to cover bad loans also came down to Rs 25.6 billion from Rs 31.7 billion parked aside in the June quarter of the previous fiscal.

One shall note that, gross non-performing assets (GNPA) of Indian banks rose from 9.2% in September 2016 to 9.6% in March 2017. GNPA refers to the total value of loans on which interest and principal income has not been received by the bank for more than ninety days.

For some banks, the ratio of GNPAs to total lending is more than 20%. This means more than Rs 20 out of every Rs 100 lent is at the risk of not coming back.

Rising Bad Loans at Indian Banks

The RBI expects the average GNPA ratio to increase to 10.2% by March 2018. It indicated that if macroeconomic conditions worsen, this number could go up.

Although RBI is showing urgency in tackling the NPA issue, a lot more needs to be done by lenders too to stop the rot.

Punjab National Bank share price opened down by 0.7%.


GST Relief for SME's, Indian Energy Exchange IPO & Other Top Cues in Action Today
Pre-Open

Indian share markets continued to soar in the afternoon session and finished in green for a fifth session of gains in six. At the closing bell last week, the BSE Sensex closed higher by 222 points and the NSE Nifty finished up by 91 points. The S&P BSE Mid Cap finished up by 1% while S&P BSE Small Cap finished up by 0.7%. Gains were largely seen in metal stocks, oil & gas stocks and PSU stocks.

Top Stocks in Focus

Crompton greaves share price is expected to be in news today after it was reported that the company has submitted a bid for the acquisition of home appliances brand Kenstar from debt-laden Videocon Group. The Videocon group, which is struggling with a debt of over Rs 400 billion has been considering sale of its various assets over the past few years to bring down the debt.

Reliance Industries share price is expected to see some action today after the company signed agreements to sell all its interest in upstream Marcellus shale assets in north-eastern and central Pennsylvania for US$126 million. In 2010, RIL had bought a 60% stake in the assets for US$392 million.

In news from telecom sector, the Tata Group informed the government that it plans to shut its wireless business, bringing an end to its 21-year-old phone services venture. This will be one of the first big Tata units to be shut in the group's 149-year-old history. Tata Teleservices, which was set up in 1996 with landline operations, has had a checkered history. It launched CDMA operations in 2002, then adopted GSM in 2008 and received Rs 140 billion of investment from NTT Docomo, which eventually decided to exit the joint venture in 2014.

In news from media sector, Zee Entertainment Enterprises share price is in news as the company announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 9X Media Pvt Ltd and its subsidiaries from New Silk Route and other shareholders for Rs 1.6 billion. The company continues with its strategy of expanding into regional markets and niche genres.

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GST Relief for SME's

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council finalised a slew of relaxation measures bringing significant relief to small and medium businesses and exporters. It also lowered GST rates for 27 items.

Rates on food items such as khakra, dried sliced mango, ICDS food packets, unbranded namkeen, and unbranded Ayurvedic medicine have been lowered to 5%, as have rates of waste paper, plastic and rubber e-waste. Similarly, the GST rate for job work services provided by Zaria workers, imitation jewellery, printing and food items has been cut to 5%.

Similarly, to lower the compliance burden on small and medium businesses, the threshold for the composition scheme has been increased to an annual turnover of Rs 10 million from the earlier Rs 7.5 million.

IPO Segment

Indian Energy Exchange's (IEX) IPO is all set to debut today. IEX is India's first power exchange, which provides automated trading platform for electricity and renewable energy certificates. IEX is coming out with an IPO of up to 60.65 lakh equity shares through an Offer for Sale (OFS) by the selling shareholders. The price band of the issue has been fixed at Rs 1,645-1,650 per equity share.

IEX was originally promoted by erstwhile Financial Technologies (63 Moons Technologies) and PTC India Financial Services in March 2007. Notably, both the original promoters currently do not hold any stake in IEX. It commands greater than 93.5% volume market share while PXIL accounts for the rest.

The market euphoria is something similar to what was seen in 2007-08. When everyone around you is clamoring to get a piece of the IPO pie, it makes sitting tight difficult. And, why should you sit tight when stocks like Avenue Supermart lets you pocket a cool 100% gain from day 1 of the listing?

History suggests that these cases are few and far between. More than 70% of the IPOs listed in 2007 and 2008 are in the red, even today when the Sensex is at an all-time high.

This allows us to stay on the fence when it comes to investing in IPOs. But it doesn't make sense to completely ignore this space. For every Reliance Power - like issue, there have been issues like Maruti, TCS, and Jubilant Foodworks Ltd (with returns over 4,000%, 1,000% and 500% respectively) that have created immense wealth for shareholders. A merit-based selection primarily including valuation, business, and management quality is the logical way to go about it.

US Markets Wobble

Markets in US closed mostly lower in last week's trade after data disclosed that the labour market experienced its first contraction in seven years.

The dollar briefly touched a 2-month high and Treasury prices fell as signs that wage growth might finally be taking hold amid heightened expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates in December.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury on Friday unveiled an array of sweeping reforms of capital markets in the US designed to boost market access and investment opportunities.

The proposals, which form part of President Donald Trump's plan to spur economic growth and reduce regulation, include efforts to roll back current regulations, many of which were imposed after the financial crisis of 2008.

Oil prices Remain Flat

Oil prices fell from last week's highs. The sentiments also remained negative as Tropical Storm Nate was forecast to hit the Gulf of Mexico coast as traders anticipate disruption to refineries.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and OPEC are lobbying Russia to stay on board with their efforts to raise oil prices, amid signals that Moscow wants to end its participation in costly petroleum-production cuts.

To keep a tab on the movements in crude oil and other commodities, you can read the stock market commentary from the Daily Profit Hunter team. Their commentary tracks the developments in the global economy as well as stock, currency and commodity markets.