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Budget 2006-07: Steel


Being a core sector, steel industry tracks the overall economic growth in the long-term. Also, steel demand, being derived from other sectors like automobiles, consumer durables and infrastructure, its fortune is dependent on the growth of these user industries. India is currently the ninth largest steel-producing nation in the world. However, it has a per capita consumption of steel of around 30 kgs as against 210 kgs in China and an average of over 400 kgs in the developed countries. Read more

 Budget Measures


  • Customs duty on ferro alloys, stainless steel and other alloy steel has been reduced from 10% to 7.5%.

     Budget Impact


  • The reduction in customs duties on certain forms of steel will exert pressure on steel companies' intentions of raising prices. However, the effect of this would be more prominent in times of cyclical downturns. With steel cycle already displaying signs of weakness, this is a negative.


     Sector Outlook


  • In line with what we had expected last year, the steel cycle has displayed signs of weakness over the last few quarters. We continue to remain cautious towards the steel sector in the medium-term owing to various reasons. We believe that the steel cycle has peaked and with various domestic and global capacity expansion plans taking shape coupled with China, the biggest consumer of steel and driver of steel prices in the past having become a net exporter of steel, would continue to keep steel prices under pressure. Indian steel majors have already announced aggressive capacity expansion plans. While steel demand in India is expected to grow in the region of 5% to 6% in the long-term, it may not be able to absorb the capacity additions being planned within the country.


     Budget over the years


    Budget 2003-04 Budget 2004-05 Budget 2005-06

    Finance minister reaffirmed the thrust on infrastructure development by announcing new infrastructure projects.

    Peak customs duty reduced from 30% to 25%.

    Decrease in freight rate by 5.3%. Confessional freight for short distance transportation.

    Tax sops maintained for the housing sector.

    Surcharge on corporate tax halved from the current 5% to 2.5%.

    Excise duty raised on iron and steel from 8% to 12%.

    Customs duty reduced from 15% to 10% on all primary, semi-finished and finished forms of iron and steel like ingots and billets, sponge iron, hot rolled and cold rolled bars/rods/coils of non-alloy steel (other than seconds and defectives).

    Customs duty on industry raw materials such as catalysts and refractory raw materials reduced from 15% to 10%.

    Excise duty on steel raised to 16%.

    Customs duty on ferro-alloys and stainless steel and other alloy steel reduced from 15% to 10

    Duty on coking coal with high ash content reduced from 15% to 5%.

    Duty on primary and secondary metals reduced from 15% to 10%.

    Customs duty reduced from 20% to 15% on ferro alloys, stainless steel and other alloy steel, excluding seconds and defectives.

    The budget is silent on the restoration of the duty entitlement pass book (DEPB) scheme applicable to steel exporters.

    A surcharge of 2% on account of education cess will be imposed on corporate tax.

    [Read more on Budget 2003-04] [Read more on Budget 2004-05] [Read more on Budget 2005-06]

    Key Positives
  • Growth potential:  The per capita steel consumption in India is abysmally low at around 30 kgs as compared to 210 kgs of China and over 400 kgs in the developed countries. This wide gap in relative steel consumption indicates that the potential ahead for India to raise its steel consumption is high.

  • Continued demand:  Meteoric rise in steel prices since 2003 until early 2005 helped the domestic steel companies immensely as many of them managed to reduce their debt burden considerably, helping them either turn into profits or increase the same significantly. Going forward, the demand for the metal is likely to sustain on the back of continuing demand from the US and other South East Asian nations.

  • Domestic help:  A robust housing and infrastructure sector, with growth potential in the auto and the consumer durables sectors is likely to be a big positive for the domestic steel sector.

  • India advantage:   Indian steel producers are one of the lowest cost producers in the world, which provides them a hedge against fall in prices. Further, relatively efficient and vertically integrated companies like Tisco are likely to be in a better position to weather any steel downturn.

      
    Key Negatives
  • Fragmented industry:   While there have been concerted efforts to bring in control the fragmented nature of the industry through consolidation and closures, the problem continues to persist. Further, the biggest threat to the industry remains from the cyclicality of the sector, which could put immense pressure on steel prices if steel consumption shows signs of faltering or supply exceeds the demand considerably.

  • Capped benefits:   Indian steel companies have to bear additional costs pertaining to capital equipment, power and inefficiencies (low per employee productivity). This has capped the edge they would have otherwise enjoyed due to availability of cheap labour and raw materials.

  • Import threat:   Another possible threat to the domestic steel sector continues to be from dumping by international companies. With wide spread capacity expansions taking place across the globe and the protection to domestic steel companies being progressively reduced with consistent reduction in custom duties, international steel companies might look at markets to dump their products. In such a scenario, Indian companies stand to lose due to lack of competition in terms of size.


    Budget Impact: Steel Sector Analysis for 2005-06 | Steel Sector Analysis for 2007-08
    Latest: Performance Of Steel Stocks | Steel Sector Report

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    Sector Performance
    COMPANY PRICE (Rs)
    ABC GAS 61.5
    (3.3%)
    ADHUNIK INDUSTRIES 37.8
    (-4.4%)
    AEROFLEX INDUSTRIES 148.2
    (-0.1%)
    AERPACE INDUSTRIES 15.6
    (2.0%)
    ANKIT METAL 4.3
    (-0.5%)
    APL APOLLO TUBES 1,549.0
    (-2.1%)
    ASHIANA ISP. 45.8
    (1.6%)
    AURO IMPEX 88.9
    (5.3%)
    BALASORE ALLOYS 6.3
    (0.2%)
    BANSAL ROOFING PRODUCTS 86.1
    (0.3%)
    BEEKAY STEEL IND. 646.9
    (0.3%)
    BHARAT WIRE ROPES 306.7
    (1.7%)
    BIHAR SPONGE 14.4
    (2.0%)
    BINANI INDUSTRIES 15.5
    (4.6%)
    BLOOM INDUS. 24.9
    (4.5%)
    BMW INDUSTRIES 64.7
    (-2.3%)
    BOMBAY WIRE ROPES 56.1
    (2.0%)
    CAPTAIN TECHNOCAST 204.5
    (10.0%)
    CHAMAN METALLICS LTD. 92.0
    (2.2%)
    CHENNAI FERROUS IND. 114.0
    (-0.8%)
    COSMIC CRF 1,020.0
    (-2.3%)
    CREATIVE CASTINGS 765.5
    (1.6%)
    CRIMSON METAL 8.9
    (-4.5%)
    CUBEX TUBING 124.9
    (-2.0%)
    D P WIRES 526.0
    (-0.7%)
    DALMIA REFRACTORIES LTD. 0.0
    (0.0%)
    DE NEERS TOOLS 210.0
    (0.0%)
    DEEM ROLL-TECH LTD. 109.5
    (1.3%)
    DEEPTI ALLOY STEEL 37.1
    (0.0%)
    DHATRE UDYOG 24.9
    (5.0%)
    DP WIRES 527.1
    (-0.1%)
    EARTHSTAHL & ALLOYS 47.0
    (-1.8%)
    EAST COAST STEEL 29.3
    (0.0%)
    ELANGO INDUS 10.3
    (-1.9%)
    ELECTROSTEEL STEELS 31.1
    (-4.9%)
    EURO PANEL PRODUCTS 185.0
    (1.4%)
    FACOR ALLOYS 7.9
    (-1.7%)
    GALLANTT METAL 285.0
    (0.5%)
    GANDHI SPECIAL TUBES 818.0
    (4.3%)
    GODAWARI POWER 906.2
    (1.2%)
    GOODLUCK INDIA 912.0
    (-0.4%)
    GOPAL IRON & STL. 8.1
    (2.5%)
    GRAND FOUNDRY 10.5
    (0.0%)
    GRAVITA INDIA 970.0
    (0.1%)
    GUJ.INTRUX 337.1
    (9.5%)
    GYSCOAL ALLOYS 3.6
    (-0.3%)
    HARIOM PIPE 613.3
    (0.8%)
    HEERA ISPAT 7.7
    (-4.3%)
    HI-TECH PIPES 129.7
    (1.1%)
    HINDUSTAN COPPER 381.2
    (0.4%)
    HISAR METAL 184.9
    (-1.8%)
    IFGL REFRACTORIES 654.0
    (2.5%)
    INDIAN BRIGHT 148.8
    (2.0%)
    INDIAN METALS 739.5
    (4.1%)
    INDSIL HYDROPOWER 51.3
    (-0.3%)
    INDUCTO STEEL 67.0
    (1.9%)
    INVESTMENT & PREC. 678.0
    (12.7%)
    ISMT 103.4
    (1.4%)
    JAI BALAJI INDUS 1,087.0
    (5.0%)
    JAI CORP 320.5
    (0.7%)
    JAINAM FERRO ALLOYS (I) LTD. 140.0
    (4.4%)
    JAYASWAL NECO 55.4
    (5.0%)
    JINDAL SAW 545.2
    (2.2%)
    JINDAL STAINLESS 727.4
    (-1.4%)
    JINDAL STAINLESS (HISAR) 560.8
    (3.6%)
    JINDAL STEEL & POWER 940.0
    (0.4%)
    JSW STEEL 903.0
    (2.3%)
    KACHCHH MINERALS 35.5
    (-2.7%)
    KALYANI CAST TECH LTD. 425.0
    (0.2%)
    KALYANI FORGE 443.5
    (3.8%)
    KALYANI STEELS 900.0
    (2.1%)
    KAMDHENU ISPAT 531.0
    (-0.4%)
    KANISHK STEEL 34.0
    (-2.2%)
    KIC METALLICS 53.8
    (1.1%)
    KIRL.FERROUS 593.1
    (-0.6%)
    KRIDHAN INFRA 4.4
    (-5.0%)
    LESHA STEELS 15.4
    (-1.2%)
    LGB FORGE 10.5
    (-2.2%)
    LLOYDS METALS 729.6
    (0.0%)
    M.M.FORGINGS 1,055.8
    (0.1%)
    MAGNA ELECTR 481.0
    (0.5%)
    MAHAMAYA STEEL 110.0
    (-3.2%)
    MAHARASHTRA SEAMLESS 908.9
    (3.4%)
    MAIDEN FORGINGS LTD. 105.1
    (-1.8%)
    MAITHAN ALLOYS 1,235.0
    (5.7%)
    MANAKSIA STEELS 56.9
    (2.0%)
    MANGALAM WORLDWIDE LTD. 166.5
    (0.9%)
    MARATHWADA REFRACT 401.0
    (4.7%)
    METAL COATING 94.4
    (7.0%)
    METALYST FORGINGS 5.0
    (0.6%)
    MEWAT ZINC 160.8
    (-2.0%)
    MFS INTERCORP 12.4
    (5.0%)
    MISHRA DHATU NIGAM 442.6
    (0.0%)
    MODERN STEEL 21.6
    (0.2%)
    MONNET IND. 26.0
    (-2.3%)
    MORGANITE CRUC 1,423.0
    (0.7%)
    MSP STEEL & POWER 27.5
    (0.2%)
    MUKAND 181.4
    (5.1%)
    MUKAT PIPES 14.8
    (1.7%)
    N.D. METAL 111.5
    (-2.8%)
    NALWA SONS INV 3,552.6
    (-2.8%)
    NANAVATI VENTURES 50.6
    (0.2%)
    NATIONAL FITTINGS 149.5
    (6.2%)
    NELCAST. 154.1
    (0.1%)
    NILACHAL REFRACT. 56.8
    (5.0%)
    NILE. 1,365.0
    (-2.0%)
    NMDC STEEL 66.8
    (-1.6%)
    NOVA IRON & STEEL 27.5
    (0.0%)
    NUPUR RECYCLERS 81.9
    (0.3%)
    OM INFRA 141.3
    (0.0%)
    ORIENT ABRASIVES 49.5
    (-1.8%)
    OWAIS METAL & MINERAL PROCESSING LTD. 742.4
    (5.0%)
    P.M. TELELINNKS 6.4
    (1.6%)
    PACT INDUSTRIES 1.4
    (4.6%)
    PENNAR INDUSTRIES 140.6
    (-0.1%)
    POCL ENTERPRISES 320.3
    (2.0%)
    POKARNA 470.8
    (-0.9%)
    PRADHIN 50.0
    (4.1%)
    PRAKASH STEELAGE 7.8
    (-2.0%)
    QUALITY FOILS (INDIA) LTD. 123.9
    (5.0%)
    RAASI REFRACTORIES 49.7
    (5.0%)
    RAJDARSHAN 46.5
    (4.0%)
    RAJRATAN GLOBAL WIRE 631.1
    (-1.2%)
    RAM RAT.WIRE 330.8
    (-2.5%)
    RAMA STEEL TUBES 13.8
    (-1.7%)
    RATHI BARS 40.1
    (3.1%)
    RATHI STEEL 64.9
    (2.0%)
    RATNAMANI METALS 2,997.0
    (-0.4%)
    RATNAVEER PRECISION ENGINEERING LTD. 141.4
    (-2.3%)
    REMI EDELSTAHL TUBULARS 96.9
    (3.2%)
    RHETAN TMT 9.4
    (-0.4%)
    RHI MAGNESITA 647.6
    (-1.8%)
    RIDDHI STEEL & TUBE 38.0
    (7.0%)
    RUCHI STRIPS 6.7
    (0.0%)
    RUDRA GLOBAL 39.8
    (-4.0%)
    SAIL 165.4
    (0.4%)
    SAL STEEL 19.1
    (2.0%)
    SARDA ENERGY & MINERALS 237.1
    (1.8%)
    SARTHAK METALS 233.3
    (2.2%)
    SH.STEEL WIR 40.2
    (4.3%)
    SHAH ALLOYS 64.9
    (3.1%)
    SHALIMAR WIRE 24.5
    (-1.1%)
    SHARDA ISPAT 298.0
    (0.5%)
    SHARP CHUCKS & MACHINES LTD. 99.9
    (-8.4%)
    SHIV.BIMETAL 577.9
    (-0.5%)
    SHRI BAJRANG ALLOYS 298.4
    (-2.4%)
    SHYAM METALICS AND ENERGY 641.8
    (-2.0%)
    SIMPLEX CASTINGS 189.1
    (-2.0%)
    SP REFRACTORIES LTD. 172.0
    (3.5%)
    SRU STEELS 10.5
    (-0.2%)
    STEEL EXCHANGE 13.9
    (-0.2%)
    STEEL STRIPS INFRA 35.9
    (-0.2%)
    STEELCAST 643.3
    (-1.8%)
    SUNFLAG IRON & STEEL 217.6
    (1.2%)
    SURAJ PRODUCTS 637.7
    (5.0%)
    SURAJ STAINLESS 301.0
    (2.7%)
    SURANI STEEL TUBES 427.0
    (2.2%)
    SURYA ROSHNI 601.0
    (1.0%)
    SWASTIK PIPES LTD. 77.6
    (0.9%)
    T.N.STEEL TU 11.9
    (-4.7%)
    TATA METALIK 1,090.2
    (3.0%)
    TATA STEEL 167.0
    (0.9%)
    TATA STEEL BSL 85.6
    (-1.4%)
    TATA STEEL LONG PROD 829.5
    (0.3%)
    TAYO ROLLS 93.5
    (-0.4%)
    THAAI CASTING LTD. 170.6
    (3.5%)
    TINPLATE 430.5
    (-0.5%)
    TRANSTEEL SEATING TECH 95.2
    (-2.3%)
    TULSYAN NEC 101.0
    (2.0%)
    UNI ABEX 2,690.0
    (-0.3%)
    UNISON METALS 24.9
    (9.6%)
    USHA MARTIN 363.6
    (0.6%)
    VALLABH STEEL 13.0
    (4.9%)
    VASWANI INDUSTRIES 37.4
    (-2.0%)
    VBC FERRO 46.7
    (1.4%)
    VENUS PIPES & TUBES 2,100.7
    (-0.2%)
    VIBHOR STEEL TUBES LTD. 305.5
    (2.7%)
    VISA STEEL 22.0
    (-3.5%)
    WELCAST 1,551.0
    (-1.1%)
    WELSPUN SPECIALTY 37.7
    (-1.5%)

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