Will it be another let down? - Views on News from Equitymaster

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Will it be another let down?

Jan 26, 2002

Opening higher, closing lower was the trend for the week without the intra-day volatility. Bourses saw through another week of flat markets. Skepticism on a V-shaped global economic recovery seems to be finding more supporters, which is likely to have led to markets remaining directionless.Investors, including the savviest, have been expecting a turnaround in the global economy, especially in U.S.A, and therefore the stock markets, since mid 2001. Getting it wrong, forecasts have been pushed forward a couple of times. Once again fears are rising that the turnaround, which is expected and we all know, may not come about as early as was expected. Uncertainty in the market seems to reflect that investors are spilt on the timing of the turnaround.

Although the domestic economy remains weak, initial signs of a revival seem to be emerging with core sector growth improving QoQ. However, much of this could be due to the buoyancy in cement. Agriculture has also performed in the first half and expectations are that improved growth in the sector would provide the much needed impetus for economic growth.

The earnings season has not done much to lift sentiment. Having said that, besides commodities, most other sectors seem to have matched or bettered expectations. With only a week left to season ending, investors are not likely to show a change of heart towards results. With the budget a month away all ears are likely to shift to New Delhi. Reports on possible changes in policy are likely to drive the markets.

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