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Energy: Reviewing fiscal '01

May 17, 2001

Oil production, which declined in the previous two fiscal years, registered a growth of 1.4% in FY01 to 32.5 MMT. Oil & Natural Gas (ONGC), Oil India Ltd. (OIL) and private companies registered a marginal increase in oil production over the concerned fiscal. The decline in oil production for the earlier two years was largely due to a drop in ONGC's production led by the Bombay High fields. However, private oil fields registered double-digit growth over this period. Consequently, share of private producers increased from 9.2% in FY99 to 12.7% in FY01. ONGC and OIL contribute 87% of India's production with the Bombay High fields alone constituting 52% of domestic produce.

With oil production stagnating the Government introduced the NELP-I to attract investments in the sector. Under NELP-I the Government offered 22 exploration blocks and signed production-sharing contracts for the same in FY00. In FY01, the Government has offered 25 more blocks under NELP-II. The blocks on offer included 8 shallow & deep water offshore blocks and 9 onshore blocks. ONGC is reported to be amongst the more aggressive bidders in the current round and is expected to be one of the favourites. The company has bid for 18 exploration blocks.

Crude throughput during the year was 103.5 m metric tonnes (MMT) a growth of 20% YoY but below 25% registered in FY00. Imports, including crude and petroleum products, for FY01 were 81.4 MMT a growth of 6.2% YoY. India's POL import bill was estimated to be Rs 718.3 bn a significant rise of 68.6% YoY. The rise in the import bill was largely due to oil prices increasing sharply over the concerned period.

Consumption of petroleum products registered a marginal growth of 1.4% YoY to 102.5 MMT. This could be due to higher oil prices and the slow down in the economy during the second half of the fiscal. For FY01, growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and GDP dropped by 1 and 0.6 percentage points YoY respectively. The three-year compounded growth (CAGR) in consumption is 5.3%. However, consumption growth in the previous two fiscals has been above 7%.

The aggregate supply of crude and petroleum products was 114 MMT as compared 108.6 MMT in the previous fiscal. The resultant surplus in certain petroleum products, mainly petrol and diesel, was exported. Reliance Petroleum (RPL) was one of the largest exporters of petroleum products. The current fiscal is also likely to see excess in petroleum products consequently India could remain an exporter of these products.

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