X

Sign up for Equitymaster's free daily newsletter, The 5 Minute WrapUp and get access to our latest Multibagger guide (2019 Edition) on picking money-making stocks.

This is an entirely free service. No payments are to be made.


Download Now Subscribe to our free daily e-letter, The 5 Minute WrapUp and get this complimentary report.
We hate spam as much as you do. Check out our Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use.
FM Nirmala Sitharaman Inherits an Economy Facing a Number of Headwinds - Views on News from Equitymaster

Helping You Build Wealth With Honest Research
Since 1996. Try Now

  • MyStocks

MEMBER'S LOGINX

     
Login Failure
   
     
   
     
 
 
 
(Please do not use this option on a public machine)
 
     
 
 
 
  Sign Up | Forgot Password?  
  • Home
  • Outlook Arena
  • Jun 4, 2019 - FM Nirmala Sitharaman Inherits an Economy Facing a Number of Headwinds

FM Nirmala Sitharaman Inherits an Economy Facing a Number of Headwinds

Jun 4, 2019

A former defense and trade minister, Nirmala Sitharaman became the first woman finance minister of India after Indira Gandhi.

She has inherited an economy facing a number of risks.

She faces immense challenges as finance minister. India's economy is starting to splutter on the back of a slow-down in consumption and private investment.

Fixing this and jump-starting the economy are the first order of business.

The data released on Friday was disappointing at different levels.

Lower growth in GDP, stagnant growth in core sector in April 2019, and the government just about managing the 3.4% deficit number in FY19 pose puzzles for the new Cabinet which assumes responsibility of kick-starting the economy.

A look at key macroeconomic indicators presents a gloomy picture.

--- Advertisement ---
How to Rake In HUGE Profits From The Market's Faith In Modi…

Modi is India's PM once again…

And we believe the market's faith in him and his governance could push the Sensex all the way to 100,000 in the coming years.

Now in our view, the best way to profit from the market's faith in Modi is to make a handful of solid investments and let the market do the rest for you.

Yes! Our Co-Head of Research, Tanushree Banerjee, has identified 7 specific stocks that are potentially best placed to benefit greatly from this coming surge as the Sensex heads to 100,000.

But these stocks may not remain in the buy range for long.

So hurry, just click here for full details now…
------------------------------

Sinking GDP Growth Means FM Nirmala Sitharaman has to Push for Sweeping Reforms

According to the data released by the Central Statistics Office on Friday, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 5.8% in the last quarter of financial year 2019 (FY19), between January and March.

GDP Growth Slips to 5-Year Low


The data demonstrates GDP growth slowing steadily, from 8 to 7 to 6.6% in the first three quarters of FY19.

The signs of slowdown are visible throughout the economy.

Growth of Core Sector Industries Remained Flat

India's core economy grew at 4.3% in FY19, its second slowest pace in the past 5 years, down from 4.9% in FY15, according to latest data by the ministry of commerce and industry.

The 8 core industries include Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refinery, Fertilisers, Steel, Cement, and Electricity.

8 Core Sectors Report Flat Growth in FY19


The growth rate is also flat since fiscal FY18 which had also recorded a 4.3% growth.

Manufacturing and Services Sector Activity Decelerates

Core sector growth will have a direct impact on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) as these sectors account for a major chunk of total factory output.

Worries Rise as Factory Output Shrinks in March


The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are used to gauge the level of activity in the manufacturing sector.

What Does the PMI Say?


The country's manufacturing sector performance fell to an eight-month low in April as new business growth moderated, curbed by the elections and a challenging economic environment.

The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index declined from 52.6 in March to 51.8 in April, reflecting weakest improvement in business conditions since August 2018.

However, this was the 21st consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI remained above the 50-point mark.

In PMI parlance, a number above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.

The April PMI data indicated a softer increase in new orders had restricted growth of output, employment, and business sentiment.

Further, the Indian service sector lost momentum in April, with rates of new business and output growth both cooling to seven-month lows.

Indian Service Sector Loses Momentum Too


Falling from 52.0 in March to 51.0 at the start of FY19, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index pointed to the weakest upturn in output since last September.

Besides these, there are many other indicators of a slowdown.

A decline in consumer demand, a slowdown in government spending, and weak private investment have likely impacted India's growth in the fourth quarter.

One such high frequency indicator is automobile sales.

What do these numbers indicate?

Vehicle sales are a very important economic indicator about how the people of India feel about their economic prospects.

After all, no one is forcing anyone to buy a car and given that if a consumer buys a car, he chooses to make a down payment and/or take on an EMI.

This is only possible if the consumer is feeling positive about his future economic prospects.

Automobile Sales Skid as Demand Remains Sluggish


On Saturday, India's largest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a 22% decline in sales in May, the lowest in seven years.

Other auto-makers such as Tata Motors, Eicher Motors, and Hero Moto Corp reported declines in sales too.

All these economic indicators basically provide evidence of the Indian economy slowing down further since January 2019.

Another major area that needs immediate attention by the government, is job creation.

According to a CMIE survey, the unemployment number stands at 41 million people. That is too big a number to be ignored.

Now, job creation at such a mass level won't be a walk in the park. To set the wheels in motion, the government will have to look at infrastructure spending.

Capacity expansion in new projects has seen a gradual slowdown in the past few years.

Infra Capacity Expansion Likely to Be the Key Focus of the Modi Government

Infra Capacity Expansion Likely to Be the Key Focus of the Modi Government

From Rs 3.3 trillion in June 2018, the number has come down sharply to Rs 2.1 trillion as of March 2019.

Co-head of research, Tanushree Banerjee believes this is first area the government will look to focus on.

Apart from creating jobs in the infrastructure sector, it opens a lot of other avenues.

Here's an excerpt of what she wrote in The 5Minute WrapUp:

  • Better infrastructure will mean better connectivity to non-metros. This will attract manufacturing companies to set shop in these towns. It will give a boost to the urbanisation of the population.

    This is a trend I see clearly playing out in the coming years.

    Infrastructure spending -> Improved roads -> Increased two-wheeler sales.

    It is just one of the 50 irreversible trends I believe will carry the Sensex to 1,00,000.

Typically, when the capacity utilisation rises, it prompts companies to expand their capacities. If this gradual pick-up sustains, it could lead to a pick-up in private sector investment.

Thus, a revival in the investment cycle could be underway despite the current economic slowdown.

And, as far as equity markets are concerned, participants were expecting a weak fourth quarter growth data.

As such, the now published data may not weigh on the market but will raise expectations from the government and the RBI.

The pressure points in the form of finance, tax rates, infra expenditure, specific sector-related policies etc, must be addressed.

While the weak GDP data will be an important input for the Union Budget.

Most investors are now keen to know what's in store in the first week of July.

Warm regards,
Rini Mehta

Rini Mehta

Rini Mehta is a keen follower of the stock markets and economy. At Equitymaster, she covers daily stock market moves and broader market trends across Indian and global markets.


Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "FM Nirmala Sitharaman Inherits an Economy Facing a Number of Headwinds". Click here!

  

More Views on News

Emerging Challenges of Commodity Trading in India (Fast Profits Daily)

Jun 18, 2019

Vijay explains the impact of the new rules on traders in the commodity markets.

Should The Rating Agencies Be Blamed For This Credit Crisis? (Outside View)

Jun 18, 2019

The present corporate debt crisis has called credit rating agencies' credibility into serious scrutiny. As a result, SEBI has released new guidelines for them.

Don't Worry About the Slowdown...this is the Right Time to Buy Small Caps (Profit Hunter)

Jun 18, 2019

I can give you an elaborate explanation full of numbers why you must buy these stocks today, but the most eloquent explanation comes from just this one line.

How to Profit from Modi 2.0's Rs 100 Lakh Crore Infrastructure Plan (The 5 Minute Wrapup)

Jun 18, 2019

Beware of the 'infrastructure rally trap' that many investors found themselves in 2007.

Baroda Money Market Fund: Should You Park Your Short-Term Needs In It? (Outside View)

Jun 17, 2019

PersonalFN briefly shares its views about recently launched debt scheme: Baroda Money Market Fund, an open ended scheme.

More Views on News

Most Popular

India in Crisis

Here we highlight the crisis scenarios that India could face. The worry is that there aren't really any easy solutions in sig...

7 Stocks That Will Remain Evergreen in this Era of Technological Disruption(The 5 Minute Wrapup)

Jun 13, 2019

We are living in an era of disruption. Are your stocks well equipped to adapt to changes that disruption will bring along?

The Great Indian NBFC Bubble Has Burst but I Will Still Recommend These Safe NBFCs(The 5 Minute Wrapup)

Jun 11, 2019

One chart that predicted the NBFC crisis back in 2016.

Just One Stock Made Buffett Billions - And Can Make You Crores(Profit Hunter)

Jun 6, 2019

Coca Cola is arguably one of Warren Buffet's best stock picks. But did you know that small investors picked up the stock five decades before Buffet? Read on...

Kenneth Andrade Would Like Our Real Estate Stock Recommendation with Triple Digit Upside(The 5 Minute Wrapup)

Jun 12, 2019

This real estate stock recommended in Smart Money Secrets offers the most favourable upside potential.

More

Get the Indian Stock Market's
Most Profitable Ideas

How To Beat Sensex Guide 2019
Get our special report, How to Beat Sensex Nearly 3X Now!
We will never sell or rent your email id.
Please read our Terms

S&P BSE SENSEX


Jun 18, 2019 (Close)

MARKET STATS