This Crash Indicator has Bad News for 2021 - Views on News from Equitymaster

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This Crash Indicator has Bad News for 2021 podcast

Dec 11, 2020

If the year 2020 has reinforced anything, it is the fact that stock market predictions should be taken with a huge pinch of salt.

No one would have predicted what transpired in 2020. The markets went from a multi-year low to a new all-time high in a matter of few months, thus proving almost every pundit wrong.

But if predictions are useless, how does one take a view of the future?

Well, there's an approach out there that can prove to be quite effective. What exactly is this approach and how does it work?

Do take a look.

Here's more on value investing:

Rahul Shah

Rahul Shah (Research Analyst), Managing Editor, Microcap Millionaires has led the team from the front in developing some of our most stringent and rewarding research processes. As per his own admission, the turning point in Rahul's life as a financial analyst came a few years back when he got introduced to the works of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. From Buffett, he understood the value of investing in good quality business with powerful moats and strong management teams. Charlie Munger on the other hand inspired him to be a lifelong learner and use mental models in order to arrive at the crux of matters across most disciplines. Rahul firmly believes that in order to be successful at investing, you have to do the big things right and possess a great temperament and a contrarian streak.

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4 Responses to "This Crash Indicator has Bad News for 2021"


Dec 15, 2020

While I agree withe overall assessment, I Think we can not use absolute numbers like p/e 25-27 over 15-20 years.
Most companies with High mcaP nowadays are from Tech sector and they have high P/Es, so maybe theres a need to calibrate the value of P/E for predicting a market fall

Like (1)

P S Rao

Dec 13, 2020

Your warning is in bad taste. Why did not you do this video when market was at p/e of 17.15 on march 23, 2020 and advised to buy truck loads of equity and invest 75% in equity. You seem to encourage only the fear but not greed. You are advisor and your money is not at play. Still you force fear now. Is it not better to be away from such crap when you can not boldly ask investors between 23rd and 31st march 2020. Can you send me one article you published saying that even if it amounts to taking loans @18-24% per annum, that time was a clear winner. You now told that you are shocked and advise stock market is not predictable, Going by your chart, it was clear that there will be at least 70-80% returns in the next 3 years when p/e touches below 18.

Like (1)

Milind Patil

Dec 12, 2020

Dear Rahul Ji
Greetings for the day
I thanks for your update on market and also agreed. But sometimes do not understand, like just before month we invested in Top5 10x project almost little below the suggested range. Do you think that we should book partial profit when the investment is for 2/3 years perspective?
Thanks and Best Regards

Like (1)


Dec 11, 2020

There are record number of demat accounts opening. In 2021 retail investors will invest after selling in the panic of March 2020.

Like (2)
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