After rocket gains of 58% in calendar year 2017, BSE Smallcap Index is down 9% since the beginning of 2018. While corporate earnings remained depressed on account of disruptions by demonetization and goods and service tax, the sharp rally in 2017 was driven purely by expansion in the price/earnings (PE) multiples.
Rallies driven by PE expansion are not sustainable. Serious long-term investors should instead focus on a recovery in the corporate earnings. As Peter Lynch in his famous book 'One Up on Wall Street' quotes:
We too believe that in the long-run, share prices tend to move in the direction of the earnings growth. And the recent data on corporate earnings is giving mixed signals for the road ahead.
Sectors Performing Well | Sectors Showing Stress |
---|---|
Automobiles | Capital Goods |
Lubricants | Pharmaceutical |
FMCG | Cement |
Metal | Power |
After two years of depressed earnings, hopes of a trend reversal are high. However, one more quarter of depressed earnings could lead to a deep correction in the indices.
Volatility in the stock markets, have led to retail investors going slow on their SIPs in the month of April. The SIP flow which peaked at Rs 7,119 crore in March 2018 have now slowed to Rs 6,690 in April 2018. This fall of Rs 420 crore is the highest as witnessed in two years.
Now many of these retail participants are first time investors who have not witnessed the markets fall in a bear market. In case of a hefty correction in the stock market, these first time investors could possibly exit their investments in panic, which could aggravate the market correction.
The stock of Bajaj Finance, Balkrishna Industries are expected to react in today's trade as they declared their quarterly results yesterday after market hours.
Further, stocks such as Amara Raja Batteries, Ashok Leyland, Inox Wind, Kitex, Poddar Housing, Thermax are expected to be in action today as they declare their results for the quarter ended March 2018.
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