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Of March Quarter Corporate Earnings, Surge in Share Price of HDFC Bank and Key Stocks in Action Today

Fri, 1 Jun Pre-Open

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   09:30 am   

   12:30 pm   

   Closing   

Analysis of March Quarter Earnings

While corporate earnings remained depressed on account of disruptions by demonetization and goods and service tax, the sharp rally in 2017 was driven purely by expansion in the price/earnings (PE) multiples.

Rallies driven by PE expansion are not sustainable. Serious long-term investors should instead focus on a recovery in the corporate earnings. As Peter Lynch in his famous book 'One Up on Wall Street' quotes:

• "If you can follow only one bit of data, follow the earnings-assuming the company in question has earnings. As you'll see in this text, I subscribe to the crusty notion that sooner or later earnings make or break an investment in equities. What the stock price does today, tomorrow, or next week is only a distraction."

We too believe that in the long-run, share prices tend to move in the direction of the earnings growth. And the recent data on corporate earnings is encouraging. As reported by Economic Times, a sample of 1,529 companies excluding banking & finance companies and oil & gas companies reported a net profit growth of 41.9%. Further, the net sales witnessed a growth of 13.9% YoY.

Performance of Different Sectors in the Quarter Ended March 2018

Sectors Performing Well	Sectors Showing Stress
Automobiles	Capital Goods
IT	Pharmaceutical
FMCG	Textiles
Metal	Power

After two years of depressed earnings, hopes of a trend reversal are high. However, it is imperative to note that the growth has come on a lower base considering that FY17 was impacted by demonetization. We do hope the strong earnings trend to continue going forward.

HDFC Bank Stock Price Zooms

The stock of HDFC Bank surged by 4.4% in yesterday's trade. The foreign ownership cannot go beyond a maximum of 74% in the bank. On account of the recent equity dilution, their holdings have fallen below the limit of 74%. Hence, the window for buying for foreign investors will open on June 1. Reportedly, this could lead to buying of more than USD 1 billion dollar in the stock tomorrow. This can further lead to a surge in the stock price today.

Key Stocks in Action Today

Apart from HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Service, Sadbhav Infrastructure, Dilip Buildcon, Glenmark Pharma, Manpasand Beverages are expected to be in the news today.

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