Put Your Stocks Through The #10YearChallenge - Profit Hunter by Equitymaster
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Put Your Stocks Through The #10YearChallenge

Jan 25, 2019

Apurva Sheth, Editor,Profit Hunter Pro

Unless you are living under a rock you would know what the #10YearChallenge is. If you carry a smart phone then chances are by now you must have spotted the #10YearChallenge in your social media feeds.

The internet has gone crazy over this new rage with thousands of people including celebrities and institutions participating in it.

The 10 year challenge is also known by other names like...

#HowHardDidAgingHitYou challenge, and #GlowUp challenge.

Participants simply post two images - usually side by side - which were taken at least ten years apart.

The purpose? Showing the world how you've glowed up over the years or, showing how you haven't aged a day.

I participated in the #10YearChallenge and enjoyed all the attention. Have you participated in the challenge yet?

If not then go ahead and take a shot.

If everyone around you is enjoying the #10YearChallenge then why should we keep our Indian stock markets away from it.

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What would happen if stocks took the #10YearChallenge. Would they still glow after 10 years? Today, I want to put Indian stocks through this challenge.

Let's see what we get. So here's what I did - I went back by 10 years and figured out the stocks which were best performers on a 10 year time frame.

So here's the list of 10 stocks with highest percentage returns over last 10 years in 2009.

Stock 10 Year Gains in 2009
Unitech 26,263%
Aban Offshore 18,774%
Jindal Steel 18,308%
Orient Paper 17,905%
VEDL 16,563%
Laxmi Machine 11,642%
NB Ventures 11,272%
Jaicorp 10,618%
Shriram Transport Finance 8,919%
Simplex Infra 8,635%
Data Source: Spider Software India

The percentage returns in the stocks are phenomenal. The biggest gainer of them all is Unitech with gains of 26,263% followed by Aban Offshore and Jindal Steel with gains of 18,774% and 18,308% respectively.

Now let's see how hard aging hit these stocks, whether they could maintain their glow or not? Let's fast forward to 2019 and see how these stocks did over the last 10 years.

Stock Last 10 Year Gains in 2009 Last 10 Year Gains in 2019
Unitech 26,263% -98%
Aban Offshore 18,774% -94%
Jindal Steel 18,308% -76%
Orient Paper 17,905% 284%
VEDL 16,563% -26%
Laxmi Machine 11,642% 242%
NB Ventures 11,272% -38%
Jaicorp 10,618% -39%
Shriram Transport Finance 8,919% 190%
Simplex Infra 8,635% -64%
Data Source: Spider Software India

You will notice 7 out of the top 10 stocks generated negative returns over the last 10 years in 2019. The biggest gainers of 2009 - Unitech and Aban Offshore turned out to be biggest losers in 2019 with gains of -98% and -94% respectively.

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Most of the other stocks in the list performed poorly. I am sure they wouldn't want to post their 2009 v/s 2019 pic if they were humans or even cats for that matter. ??

The situation improves only marginally as we move further down the list. Here's a compilation of how the top 10, 20, 50 and 100 stocks of 2009 performed in 2019.

No. of Stocks with Gains above 500% No. of Stocks with Gains above 100% No. of Stocks with Positive gains No. of Stocks with Negative gains
Top 10 0 3 3 7
Top 20 0 5 8 12
Top 50 8 17 26 24
Top 100 17 46 64 36
  • 12 out of the top 20 stocks of 2009 ended up as losers in 2019. Only 5 stocks managed gains of more than 100% over 10 years.
  • 24 out of the top 50 stocks of 2009 ended up as losers in 2019. Out of the 26 stocks with positive gains, 17 gained more than 100%. Only 8 out of these 17 ended with gains of more than 500% over 10 years.
  • 36 out of the top 100 stocks of 2009 ended up as losers in 2019. Out of the 64 stocks with positive gains, 46 gained more than 100%. And only 17 of them ended with gains of more than 500% over 10 years.

So, what conclusions can we draw by putting stocks through the #10YearChallenge?

  1. What has worked in the past won't necessarily work in the future. You may be holding the best stock in 2009 but it may not perform the same way 10 years later if at all it is listed. ??
  2. Buy right sit tight is a myth. You may have bought the best stock and are planning to hold it for another decade and maybe even pass it on to your future generations thinking it will perform the same way. STOP! Think Again.
  3. Exit is the key. You may have done a good job buying the right stock at the right time but you won't make money until you also exit from them at the right time. Until then all the gains are merely accounting profits.

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Apurva Sheth
Apurva Sheth (Research Analyst)
Editor, Profit Hunter Pro

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1 Responses to "Put Your Stocks Through The #10YearChallenge"

s.k.limaye

Jan 25, 2019

That's why one should diversify one's holding as much as possible along different industries.

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