Sensex Pares Losses; Pharma Stocks Top Gainers

Mon, 16 Apr 12:30 pm

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After opening the day in red, share markets in India witnessed positive trading activity and are presently trading marginally below the dotted line. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note, with stocks in the pharma sector and stocks in the realty sector witnessing buying interest. While stocks in the IT sector are leading the gains.

The BSE Sensex is trading down by 76 points (down 0.2%) and the NSE Nifty is trading down by 14 points (down 0.1%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.1%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.1%. The rupee is trading at 65.44 to the US$.

In news from the goods and service tax (GST) space. According to a leading financial daily, Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections are expected to bounce back to Rs 930-950 billion, and perhaps more, when returns for March 2018 are filed by April 20.

This is against the average of about Rs 870 billion in the past five months.

Total GST collections - the sum of Central, State and integrated GST - have been on a rollercoaster since the new tax regime came into force in July 2017. After three months of robust collections - in excess of Rs 900 billion each month - they dipped in the following two months.

However the situation seems seems to be improving as GST collections rose to Rs 893 billion in March as opposed to Rs 840 billion in December last years.

Steady Decline in Fiscal Deficit Over the Years

A steady stream of GST collections could boost the government's chances of meeting its fiscal deficit target.

The government missed its previous fiscal deficit target for FY18 by 30 basis points. Against a target of 3.2%, the government managed to keep fiscal deficit at 3.5% in FY18. It has also outlined the projected fiscal deficit target of 3.3% in FY19 in its budget.

Maintaining this deficit target in FY19 won't be easy. Fiscal deficit basically means the amount a government earns minus the amount it has to spend. The lesser the fiscal deficit, the better the government has performed.

In the past, the government has relied on reducing expenditure to keep the fiscal deficit in check.

For the next year, the government is banking on earning much more than it has in the past. It expects a major portion of the revenue to be collected through GST tax collections. Also, the recent rise in crude oil prices has cast a doubt over how much the government will be to curb its spending. It also needs to revive the economy from the shock of Notebandi.

The dual pressure of increasing expenditure and lower inflows makes this FY19 deficit target an uphill challenge.

Moving on to news from . share price is among the top losers on the bourses today as media reports suggested that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has booked former chairman-cum-managing director of the bank's Arun Kaul and others in connection with a Rs 6.2 billion loan fraud.

The CBI said the loan was secured by producing false end-use certificates issued by the chartered accountants and by fabricating business data and it was not utilised for the sanctioned purpose.

The account was declared a non-performing asset on July 7, 2013 by the bank and the present balance as on December 31, 2017 is Rs 7.3 billion.

At the time of writing, was trading down by 8%

Frauds like these would only add to the pressures faced by the country's banking sector. The NPA problem is getting messier by the day.

Out of the ten major economies facing NPA problems, India is ranked seventh.

Further, according a leading financial daily, a comparison of the NPAs of 25 large Asia-Pacific banks shows that the large Indian banks have the worst NPA ratio when compared to their large cap peers in the region. For FY16, India has been the worst performer with NPAs of 4.6%. Thailand has been the second performer with NPAs of 3.2%.

The state owned banks have suffered more than its private peers. This will have serious consequences on India's overall credit growth as state-owned banks account for two-thirds of overall credit disbursed by scheduled commercial banks in India.

The overhang of bad debts has not only hit their profitability, but has also restricted their loan book growth. Given the scale of the bad loan problem, the bankers may remain cautious in granting new loans and approving new projects. This may delay India's investment cycle.

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