Indian Indices Trade Marginally Lower; Energy Stocks Witness Losses

Wed, 16 May 12:30 pm

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Share markets in India are presently trading marginally lower. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the energy sector and banking sector witnessing maximum selling pressure.

The BSE Sensex is trading down by 135 points (down 0.4%), while the NSE Nifty is trading down by 55 points (down 0.5%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading down by 0.1%.

The rupee is trading at 67.86 to the US$.

In the news from the macroeconomic space, as the Congress and allies chipped away at the BJP seats in Karnataka elections yesterday, all eyes are now on Governor Vajubhai Vala.

The Governor will have to decide whether to call BJP to try to form the government or go with the JD(S)-Congress combine, which together have a clear majority in the 224-member Assembly.

There are high stakes involved as the final outcome will have a bearing on the stock markets too.

As Ankit writes in one his editions of Equitymaster Insider (requires subscription)...

• Dalal Street logic says BJP win will give a boost to the Indian stock markets. BJP's loss would spell bearishness.
  
  And now that the next general elections are just a year away, politics will remain a focal point of discussion in the context of the stock markets.
  
  Remember that the stock markets like Mr Modi. And currently, they're pricing in a Modi victory in 2019. If this premise starts developing cracks, it may weigh negatively on your stock portfolio.

How the above decision pans out remain to be seen. Meanwhile, we'll keep a close watch on the developments in this space and keep you updated. Stay tuned.

In the news from the banking sector, Punjab National Bank (PNB) share price is witnessing selling pressure today as the state-run lender reported loss of Rs 134 billion for the quarter ended March 2018. This was the biggest loss ever reported by any domestic lender.

The surge in net loss was seen on the back of surging bad loans. With regards to provision made for the loss incurred on account of Nirav Modi fraud case, the bank said it provided for Rs 71.8 billion in the fourth quarter. This is 50% of the total amount of Rs 143 billion and the remaining amount will be covered in the three quarters of the current fiscal year.

Note that the massive fraud at Punjab National Bank in conjunction with the diamond merchant Nirav Modi, has put the spotlight on the growing bad loan problems in Indian banks.

It has brought to the fore the painful issue of willful defaulters especially after the Vijay Mallya fiasco. The chart below shows the banks that have the highest number of willful defaulters.

Unsurprisingly, Punjab National Bank tops the list. But the others aren't too far behind.

Banks with the Highest Number of Willful Defaulters

While the bad loans struggle at PSBs has been going on since a decade, bureaucracy and a lack of autonomy have ensured the sub-optimal profitability and asset quality of these state-run banks.

That's the reason we've been wary of PSU banks since 2014. This was well before the market had caught a whiff of the NPA problem. We've recommended just two large PSU banks in StockSelect since then...and already successfully closed both of them.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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