Sensex Ends Day in Green; Sun Pharma Up 7%

Mon, 28 May Closing

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After opening the day in green, share markets in India witnessed positive trading activity throughout the day and ended the day on a positive note. Sectoral indices traded on a mixed note, with stocks in the capital goods sector and stocks in the oil and gas sector, leading the gains.

At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 241 points (up 0.1%) and the NSE Nifty closed up by 84 points (up 0.8%). The BSE Mid Cap index ended the day up 1.4%, while the BSE Small Cap index ended the day up by 1.6%.

The rupee was trading at Rs 67.38 against the US$ in the afternoon session. Oil prices were trading at US$ 75.40 at the time of writing.

Asian stock markets finished mixed. As of the most recent closing prices, the Hang Seng was up by 1.6% and the Shanghai Composite was down by 0.2%. The Nikkei 225 was up by 0.2%. Meanwhile, European markets, were trading on a mixed note. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.2%, The DAX, was down by 0.2% while the CAC 40 was up by 0.3%

In news about the economy, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the south-west monsoon is set to hit Kerala within the next day, beginning its march on to the mainland.

In its first stage long range forecast the IMD said that rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 54% probability that rains will be normal to above normal.

Probability that rainfall will be deficient (less than 90% of 50 year average) is 14%, it added.

The onset of the monsoon in June is the trigger for planting of rain-fed Kharif crops. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation.

A normal monsoon is crucial to push economic growth, which slowed last year under the lingering impact of demonetisation and disruptions due to implementation of the goods and services tax (GST), both of which impacted private consumption demand as well as exports.

However, note that not all monsoon predictions turn out to be right.

The Forecast Is Not the Reality

Equitymaster Insider, Ankit Shah (Research Analyst) took a look at the raw data in one of the recent editions of The 5 Minute Wrapup. Here's Ankit:

• The moment I saw news about the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) rainfall forecast last week, my instant reflex was to find out how accurate the IMD had been in forecasting rainfall in the past.
  
  You see, as a value-focused equity analyst I am conditioned to look at historical data.
  
  Be it the weathermen, or a stock idea, I refuse to take forecasts and predictions for granted.
  
  As far as the IMD's track record is concerned, the results are in front of you.
  
  You can clearly see the gap between the forecasts and the reality. During some years, the gap is indeed quite wide.
  
  So, one thing is certain - you cannot take the forecasts too seriously.
  
  But don't get me wrong. I don't mean to discredit the IMD's efforts.
  
  I look at weather forecasts just the way I look at economic and stock market forecasts.
  
  You see, both the economy and the weather are very complex and dynamic systems. There are so many variables working together, that even a small variance in some of them can produce a completely unexpected outcome.
  
  So, what should you do when dealing with such complex systems like the economy and stock markets?
  
  I believe, the safest method is to always insist on a margin of safety.
  
  Then, even if the outcome is lower than forecasted, you will still be better off.
  
  That dear reader, is the path of investing safely in the stock market.

Moving on to news from stocks in the FMCG space. HUL share price was in focus today after the consumer goods major dragged Kwality Ltd to court for rights over Kwality Walls.

HUL dragged ice cream maker, Kwality ltd claiming sole usage rights over the Kwality Walls brand, which HUL has been using for the last two decades.

In a partial relief to the country's largest consumer product company, the Calcutta High Court directed Kwality Ltd to not use the original writing style of Kwality Walls for any of its dairy products, but continue to use its currently operational registered trademark KDIL'S Kwality.

However, the court also said Kwality Ltd should not get into ice cream, ice lollies and frozen desert categories with KDIL'S Kwality brand while HUL is restrained to enter the dairy category with Kwality brand.

Notably, HUL is the second largest player in the Rs 120 billion ice cream market, right behind Amul, with a share of over 8%.

HUL share price ended the day up 0.5%.

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