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Sensex Ends 168 Points Higher; IT and FMCG Stocks Witness Buying

Mon, 10 Jun Closing

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Indian share markets continued to trade in the green during closing hours and ended their day on a positive note.

Gains were seen in the IT sector and FMCG sector, while stocks from the oil & gas sector witnessed selling pressure.

At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 168 points (up 0.4%) and the NSE Nifty closed higher by 52 points (up 0.4%).

The BSE Mid Cap index ended up by 0.1%, while the BSE Small Cap index ended the day down by 0.5%.

Asian stock markets finished on a positive note as of the most recent closing prices. The Hang Seng stood up by 2.27% and the Nikkei was trading up by 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite was trading up by 0.86%.

European markets were also trading on a positive note. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.45%. The DAX was trading up by 0.77%, while the CAC 40 was up by 0.24%.

The rupee was trading at 69.43 to the US$ at the time of writing.

In the news from engineering sector, BHEL share price was in focus today as the company announced it has won three major orders in quick succession, for setting up Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) Power Plants totaling to 135 MW, on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) basis, in Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Eros International Media share price was also in focus today. The stock of the company hit a record low of Rs 40.95 per share today after short seller Hindenburg Research in a report alleged potential wrongdoing at parent Eros International Plc.

In the news from commodity space, crude oil was witnessing buying interest today. Prices rose after Saudi Arabia said producer club Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia were likely to keep withholding supplies.

Gains were also seen on news that the United States and Mexico averted a trade war that would have damaged the global economy.

In the coming days, members of the OPEC+ group are set to discuss whether to extend their supply curbs further.

President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia had differences with OPEC over what constituted a fair price for oil. However, he said, Moscow would take a joint decision with OPEC colleagues on output at a policy meeting in the coming weeks.

Note that within the oil industry, there are signs of a further rise in output from the United States, where crude production has already surged by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018.

That has made the United States the world's biggest producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Also, crude oil prices have quietly creeped up this year.

Oil prices have jumped to their highest level since late 2018.

As you know, rising crude oil prices have a big impact on the Indian economy as it imports over 70% of its energy needs.

Rise in crude oil increases input costs for dependent firms. It also means rising inflation. Rising inflation means rising interest rates.

It also puts pressure on the government to cut excise duty, thereby impacting its revenues. We have already seen that happening.

Research Analyst, Richa Agarwal believes that this has the potential to bring down sentiments in the domestic markets. She further believes that, if oil prices continue their upward march in a tight global environment, a broader correction in the sentiment fueled domestic market cannot be ruled out.

Speaking of crude oil, Vijay Bhambwani, editor of Weekly Cash Alerts, called the US President Donald Trump's bluff on crude oil in one of his recent articles. Here's an excerpt of what he wrote...

• From 2018 US is the largest oil producing country in the world with 13.4% of the global oil output daily.
  
  The USA has jumped ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil output. My question to every oil trader out there is this - as long as the USA was an importer, it made sense to push for lower oil prices. There were tangible benefits in doing so.
  
  President Donald Trump runs the world's largest debtor nation. One that is gasping for export income and a strong dollar. A firm USD ensures easier servicing and repayment of debt and vice versa. So now that Trump wants to export oil, and earn petro dollars does it benefit him if oil prices were to go up or down? So why does he tweet for lower oil prices?

To know more, you can read Vijay's entire article here: Crude Oil - What 'Trump Nation' Really Wants

In the news from mutual funds space, as per the AMFI data, open-ended income or debt-oriented mutual fund schemes witnessed a 42% month-on-month (MoM) fall in net inflows.

The net inflows for May stood at Rs 701 billion as against net inflows of Rs 1,209 billion in April.

The fall in net flows highlights market participants lack of faith in debt schemes following a series of defaults and downgrades that have hit the debt mutual fund space.

Apart from the above, fixed term plans continue to face net outflows as well. In May, the category saw net outflows to the tune of Rs 17.9 billion, as against Rs 176 billion last month.

Meanwhile, equity mutual funds have seen a 17% growth in their monthly net inflows from Rs 46 billion in April to Rs 54 billion in May.

Equity linked saving schemes (ELSS) or tax saving equity schemes received net inflows worth Rs 13 billion in May. In April ELSSs received Rs 13.5 billion.

Average asset under management (AUM) of the mutual fund industry for May stood at Rs 25.43 lakh crore, 0.62% higher on a month-on-month basis.

Also, speaking of mutual funds, note that the ghosts of the IL&FS crisis continue to haunt Indian mutual funds. More so, when it comes to their debt exposure.

Debt mutual fund managers have been facing a tough time due to tight liquidity post the IL&FS crisis.

The credit risk of their assets has shot up in the aftermath of the crisis. So ideally, to offset this rising credit risk, funds should have piled up on risk-free government bonds.

However, it turns out that mutual funds have been net sellers of government bonds since the beginning of 2018.

And the intensity of the selling has only increased in the months following September 2018.

As a percentage of their total assets under management, government security exposure dropped to 3.3% by January 2019, from 5.4% in August 2018.

Mutual Funds Playing with Fire with Steep Corporate Debt Exposure

Here's what Tanushree Banerjee wrote about this in one of the recent editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• Instead, in the greed of marginally higher yields from risky corporate borrowers (compared to G-Sec yields), funds are piling up on corporate debt.
  
  Keep in mind that corporate debt papers are not only relatively riskier but also comparatively illiquid. By exposing investors to such risk without their knowledge, debt fund managers are doing them a huge disservice.

It would be interesting to watch out how things pan out in this space. Meanwhile, we will keep you updated on all the developments.

To know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

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