Sensex Ends 112 Points Higher; Energy and Realty Stocks Witness Buying

Tue, 31 Jul Closing

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Indian share markets witnessed buying interest during closing hours of trade and ended the day on a positive note. Gains were largely seen in the energy sector and realty sector.

At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 112 points (up 0.3%) and the NSE Nifty closed higher by 37 points (up 0.3%). Both, the BSE Mid Cap index and the BSE Small Cap index, ended the day up by 0.3%.

Asian stock markets finished on a mixed note as of the most recent closing prices. The Hang Seng stood down by 0.5% and the Nikkei was trading flat. The Shanghai Composite stood higher by 0.3%.

European markets were trading on a positive note. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.66%. The DAX, was up by 0.07% while the CAC 40 was up by 0.08%

The rupee was trading at 68.57 to the US$ at the time of writing.

In the news from global financial space, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) took measures to make its massive stimulus programme more flexible and pledged to keep interest rates low for the time being on Tuesday. This is in line with the central bank's forecast that it would take time for inflation to hit its 2% target.

In its two-day rate review that ended on Tuesday, the BOJ decided to maintain its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1% and pledged to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0% by a 7-2 vote.

The bank, however, said it would allow long-term rates to fluctuate depending on economic and price developments, and conduct its asset purchases more flexibly.

It also said it will make tweaks to the way it buys assets, such as raising the composition of Topix-indexed exchange traded funds (ETF) to ease distortions created by the central bank's purchases of ETFs.

Avenue Supermarts share price was in focus today after the company reported a 43.4% year on year (YoY) surge in net profit at Rs 2.5 billion for the June quarter. Total revenue for the quarter rose 26.7% YoY to Rs 45.5 billion.

At the closing bell, Avenue Supermarts share price stood up by 3.8% on the BSE.

In the news from commodity space, crude oil prices witnessed selling pressure today after Reuters survey showed that OPEC production reached a 2018 high in the month of July, stoking fears of oversupply.

The survey showed that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased production in July by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 32.64 million bpd, a high for the year.

Also, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak last week said that Russia's output will hit a new 30-year high of 11.02 million bpd in 2018.

Note that, global oil prices have climbed steadily this year, helped by rising demand. Rising crude oil prices doesn't bode well for the Indian economy, as it not only affects fuel prices, but also has many other repercussions on the macroeconomic level.

They can be a big worry for the Modi government as well as it has been a big beneficiary of lower crude oil prices.

Have a look at the chart below. It shows India's total import bill of crude oil and petroleum products on an annual basis during the Manmohan Singh regime and the Narendra Modi regime.

Here's Why Crude Oil Was Modi's Best Friend So Far

As Ankit Shah wrote in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• During the UPA II regime, India's average annual oil import bill was US$ 133 billion. In fact, in the last three years of Manmohan Singh's leadership, the oil import bill exceeded US$ 150 billion. Compare that with an average annual oil bill of US$ 95 billion during the four years of Modi's leadership.
  
  The actual savings would have been even higher, because I believe the consumption of crude oil and petroleum products would have been quite higher in the Modi era than the Manmohan era.
  
  Last Thursday, Brent crude oil prices shot above US$ 80 a barrel.
  
  This is the highest level since 2014. In the past one year alone, oil prices have surged more than 50%.
  
  Now, what if oil prices go back to the levels during the Manmohan Singh regime? What would happen to India's current account and fiscal deficit? What would happen to inflation and RBI's stance on interest rates?
  
  With the next general elections just a year away, rising crude oil prices are going to be a big worry for the Modi government.
  
  It should worry you too...

Apart from that, what does rising crude oil prices mean for stock markets?

Richa Agarwal, editor of Hidden Treasure, tracks the oil and gas sector very closely. She believes the rise in crude oil prices is a bearish sign for stock markets globally. At the same time, any market correction, will throw up interesting buying opportunities in small-cap stocks.

This is what she wrote...

• After hitting a low of US$ 30 per barrel in January 2016, prices have more than doubled to US$ 68 in April 2018.
  
  While the Hidden Treasure team looks for long-term wealth creators, such macro situations can help to recommend such stocks at a bargain. The ones who keeps calm, when everyone else is losing their heads, will gain the most when the tide turns.

How the above developments influence crude oil prices remain to be seen. Meanwhile, we will keep you posted on all the updates from this space. Stay tuned.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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