Indian Indices Open on a Positive Note; Sensex Up Over 200 Points

Fri, 14 Sep 09:30 am

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Asian shares are trading on a positive note today. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.9%, while the Hang Seng is up 0.8%. The Shanghai Composite is trading down by 0.1%.

Back home, India share markets opened the day on a positive note. The BSE Sensex is trading up by 213 points (up 0.6%) while the NSE Nifty is trading up by 74 points (up 0.7%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 1.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index has opened the day up by 1%.

Sectoral indices have opened the day on a mixed note with and witnessing maximum buying interest.

The rupee is trading at 71.82 to the US dollar.

In the news from global financial markets, the Turkey Central Bank raised benchmark interest rate to 24%. This is a jump of 625 basis points that was almost double what forecasters expected.

The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also banned the use of dollars in most contracts and railed against high borrowing costs. He also told a group of craftsmen and merchants that Turkey is fighting an economic war and tough times require tough measures.

From the banking sector, Punjab National Bank share price will be in focus today. This comes as the lender has put nearly two dozen non-performing accounts (NPAs) on sale to recover over Rs 13.2 billion.

The bank's Stressed Assets Targeted Resolution Action (SASTRA) Division, which is handling the sale of stressed assets to recover dues, has put on sale a total of 21 accounts which cumulatively owe PNB Rs 13.2 billion.

In the news from commodity space, crude oil is witnessing buying interest. Gains are seen as Hurricane Florence approached the US east coast and threatened gasoline markets there. The US hurricane centre said that the hurricane, which is expected to strengthen and make landfall today, is the most powerful storm to threaten the Carolinas in almost three decades.

Also, the US government data showed that domestic crude production in 2019 is expected to grow slower than previously expected.

Apart from the above, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday warned that although the oil market was tightening at the moment and world oil demand would reach 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in the next three months, global economic risks were mounting.

The above cues meant rising crude demand and led crude oil prices to trade on a positive note.

Note that crude oil prices are witnessing buying interest lately. This doesn't bode well for the Indian economy, as it not only affects fuel prices, but also has many other repercussions on the macroeconomic level.

Rising crude oil prices can be a big worry for the Modi government as well as it has been a big beneficiary of lower crude oil prices.

Apart from that, what does rising crude oil prices mean for stock markets?

Richa Agarwal, editor of Hidden Treasure, tracks the oil and gas sector very closely. She believes the rise in crude oil prices is a bearish sign for stock markets globally. At the same time, any market correction, will throw up interesting buying opportunities in small-cap stocks.

This is what she wrote...

• After hitting a low of US$ 30 per barrel in January 2016, prices have more than doubled this year.
  
  While the Hidden Treasure team looks for long-term wealth creators, such macro situations can help to recommend such stocks at a bargain. The ones who keeps calm, when everyone else is losing their heads, will gain the most when the tide turns.

It's also interesting to note that whenever oil prices have surpassed US$ 100/barrel, they didn't stay there for very long. In technical term, it is sort of 'resistance level'.

Resistance Kicks in Once Crude Touches US$ 100/barrel

This is what we wrote about this in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• Oil prices have collapsed thrice because of demand destruction: in 1979, 2008, and 2014.
  
  In 1979, the trigger for oil price increase was the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. Due to this, oil prices rose from US$ 50/barrel to above US$ 100/barrel between January 1979 and April 1981.
  
  Then, new production from the North Sea, Mexico, Alaska, and Siberia flooded the market. By March 1986, prices had fallen to US$ 27/barrel.
  
  In 2008, when oil touched US$ 150/barrel, it was quickly followed by the financial crisis and recession.
  
  Then, between 2011 and 2014, when oil was above of US$ 100/barrel, several years of triple-digit oil prices led to a near doubling of shale production in the US, a volume that helped trigger the crash in 2014.

In fact, as per the media reports, even Saudi officials think US$ 60 is a reasonable price for oil in the long term.

It would be interesting to see how Iranian sanctions will influence crude oil prices. Meanwhile, we will keep you posted on all the updates from this space.

To know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

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