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Sensex Crashes 1,000 Points; Realty & Auto Stocks Plunge

Thu, 11 Oct 09:30 am

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Asian stocks tumbled in the morning session today as Chinese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Shanghai Composite is off 3.6% while the Hang Seng is down 3.6%. The Nikkei 225 is trading down by 3.9%. The US stocks, too, sank on Wednesday as a steep decline in tech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates sent Wall Street on pace for its worst day in eight months.

Back home, India share markets plunged in the opening session today tracking global markets and weakening rupee. The BSE Sensex is trading down by 1,000 points while the NSE Nifty is trading down by 292 points. The BSE Mid Cap index and BSE Small Cap index opened the day down by 3.3% & 3% respectively.

All sectoral indices are trading in red with automobile stocks, realty stocks, IT stocks and metal stocks falling over 3% in the opening session.

The rupee is trading at Rs 74.37 against the US$.

In the news from the oil space. The government on Wednesday cut excise duty on jet fuel from 14% to 11% to help keep airfares under check and to give relief to airlines troubled by high fuel prices.

The move comes at a time when high jet fuel prices and a weaker rupee have kept airline finances under pressure, with companies having limited headroom in raising fares without losing market share as the domestic aviation market is very price sensitive. Excise duty on jet fuel was increased in March 2014 from 8% to 14%.

As per the reports, in the case of routes covered under the government's regional connectivity scheme, jet fuel is already taxed at a lower rate of 2% from 1 July 2017.

Rising oil price and a weaker rupee have in recent months pushed up costs for industries with high energy requirement. To give relief to consumers, the government last Thursday cut excise duties on petrol and diesel by Rs 1.5 a litre each and asked state-run fuel retailers to absorb Rs 1 per litre on the auto fuels.

Reportedly, the Modi administration, which has so far been resisting populist measures, is taking steps with consumer interest in mind in its last leg in office before national polls early next year.

As per ratings agency ICRA, ATF (aviation turbine fuel) represents the single largest cost element for airlines, accounting for 30-40% of their total operating expenses. As such, the profitability of airlines is significantly impacted by ATF prices, which have been subject to high volatility.

In the first half of this fiscal, jet fuel prices have surged more than 33% from a year ago because of the increase in its price in global markets and the weakening of the rupee, stated ICRA.

Speaking of worries surrounding oil space, what does rising crude oil prices mean for stock markets?

Richa Agarwal, editor of Hidden Treasure, tracks the oil and gas sector very closely. She believes the rise in crude oil prices is a bearish sign for stock markets globally. At the same time, any market correction, will throw up interesting buying opportunities in small-cap stocks.

This is what she wrote...

• After hitting a low of US$ 30 per barrel in January 2016, prices have more than doubled this year.
  
  While the Hidden Treasure team looks for long-term wealth creators, such macro situations can help to recommend such stocks at a bargain. The ones who keeps calm, when everyone else is losing their heads, will gain the most when the tide turns.

Also, it's interesting to note that whenever oil prices have surpassed US$ 100/barrel, they didn't stay there for very long. In technical term, it is sort of 'resistance level'.

Resistance Kicks in Once Crude Touches US$ 100/barrel

This is what we wrote about this in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• Oil prices have collapsed thrice because of demand destruction: in 1979, 2008, and 2014.
  
  In 1979, the trigger for oil price increase was the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. Due to this, oil prices rose from US$ 50/barrel to above US$ 100/barrel between January 1979 and April 1981.
  
  Then, new production from the North Sea, Mexico, Alaska, and Siberia flooded the market. By March 1986, prices had fallen to US$ 27/barrel.
  
  In 2008, when oil touched US$ 150/barrel, it was quickly followed by the financial crisis and recession.
  
  Then, between 2011 and 2014, when oil was above of US$ 100/barrel, several years of triple-digit oil prices led to a near doubling of shale production in the US, a volume that helped trigger the crash in 2014.

In fact, as per the media reports, even Saudi officials think US$ 60 is a reasonable price for oil in the long term.

It would be interesting to see how Iranian sanctions will influence crude oil prices. Meanwhile, we will keep you posted on all the updates from this space.

In another development, mutual fund houses have made investments of over Rs 116 billion in domestic equities in September despite volatility in stock markets, even as foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 108.3 billion.

As per an article in The Economic Times, Investment in domestic equities by fund managers could be largely attributed to retail investors who continue to invest through systematic investment plan (SIP).

Note that, the Sensex slumped 6.2% last month owing to sharp fall in the rupee and boiling crude oil prices, turning FPIs into net sellers.

Reportedly, for domestic equity mutual funds, the recent market correction has provided a good buying opportunity for investors, and mutual funds are trying to capitalise on the same.

While there is a legitimate fear about the bleak macro environment along with the liquidity in the NBFC space, Kunal Thanvi, Editor of Smart Money Secrets & Research Analyst, believes this fear is being extended too far... to some very strong business. Here's an excerpt of what he wrote:

• "These corrections are a clear sign of fear across sectors and individual stocks.
  
  While considering stocks for Smart Money Secrets, I believe these deep corrections are a buying signal for select quality companies.
  
  And for strong business you've already bought, this can be a good time to add more."

By the way, amid uncertainty, panic and despair, we have talked to Tanushree Banerjee, Co-head of Research about finding safe stocks in our latest edition of the stock market podcast. Listen in... visit SoundCloud, iTunes or Stitcher.

And to know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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