Indian Indices Trade on a Negative Note; Sensex Down Over 150 Points

Thu, 17 May 12:30 pm

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After opening the day marginally higher, share markets in India witnessed selling pressure and are presently trading on a negative note. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the metal sector and banking sector witnessing maximum selling pressure.

The BSE Sensex is trading down by 152 points (down 0.4%), while the NSE Nifty is trading down by 42 points (down 0.4%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.4%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.2%.

The rupee is trading at 67.73 to the US$.

In the news from commodity space, crude oil is witnessing buying interest and is headed closer to US$ 80 per barrel mark. Gains are seen as supplies tightened and demand remained strong.

Note that crude oil prices have been witnessing a rising trend of late. Prices have been escalating due to a pick-up in global demand coupled with supply cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia. Even geopolitical tensions between US, Russia, North Korea and Iran have kept prices on the boil.

Rising crude oil prices is not good news from India's perspective.

As we wrote in a recent edition of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• Fiscal revenues are at risk. Particularly if the government is forced to consider a cut in fuel excise duties due to a rally in oil prices. In recent times, a sharp jump in excise collections has helped indirect tax collections. Any risk to revenues and subsequent threat to the fiscal deficit target at 3.2% of GDP would require tighter spending cuts.
  
  Secondly, the impact on inflation needs to be monitored. This narrowing the central bank's scope for further rate cuts.
  
  Lastly, low crude prices were a positive growth impetus through higher discretionary incomes for households and lower input costs for manufacturers and farmers. Part of this benefit is likely to be eroded as retail fuel costs rise. As for corporations, expansion in gross margins caused by falling commodity prices is also likely to wane, pressurising profitability.

You can read the entire article here.

What does rising crude prices mean for stock markets?

Richa Agarwal, editor of Hidden Treasure, tracks the oil and gas sector very closely. She believes the rise in crude oil prices is a bearish sign for stock markets globally. At the same time, any market correction, will throw up interesting buying opportunities in small-cap stocks.

This is what she wrote...

• After hitting a low of US$ 30 per barrel in January 2016, prices have more than doubled to US$ 68 in April 2018.
  
  The recent news of Saudi Arabia wanting crude oil prices to touch US$ 100 per barrel doesn't help. The 2008 recession was preceded by crude oil touching US$ 150 per barrel. Any movement upwards can result in a possible downturn for the global market.
  
  While th  Hidden Treasure team looks for long-term wealth creators, such macro situations can help to recommend such stocks at a bargain. The ones who keeps calm, when everyone else is losing their heads, will gain the most when the tide turns.

In other news, as per a leading financial daily, traders' body Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) has alleged that the US$ 16 billion Flipkart-Walmart deal circumvents laws. It has also said it will seek legal recourse on the matter.

The CAIT had urged the government to conduct close scrutiny of the deal that it claimed will have greater ramifications on retail trade and the economy.

How this development pans out remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we will keep you updated on all the news from this space.

Last week, US giant Walmart signed a definitive agreement to acquire a 77% stake in India's largest e-commerce marketplace Flipkart with an investment of around US$16 billion.

The acquisition is the largest transaction in history of the online retail space not only in India but also globally.

Post the deal, Walmart will own 77% of Flipkart. The rise has been staggering for India's largest start-up which started with a modest capital of US$ 6,000 in 2007, as can be seen from the chart below:

Rise of India's Biggest Start-up

Flipkart's story resembles that of its global counterpart Amazon although at a smaller scale. Walmart's deal highlights India's increasing importance in the start-up space.

It also brings to the fore the importance of disruptors in an eco-system. Flipkart incurred losses of US$ 1.35 billion in FY17. Despite this, it is valued at a premium mainly due to its future potential.

The deal also puts focus on India's e-commerce sector, which is showing increasing signs of adoption.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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