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Sensex Trades Marginally Higher; Infosys & TCS Top Gainers

Mon, 10 Jun 12:30 pm

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Share markets in India are presently trading marginally higher. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the IT sector and FMCG sector witnessing maximum buying interest, while oil & gas stocks and banking stocks are trading in red.

The BSE Sensex is trading up by 97 points while the NSE Nifty is trading up by 20 points. The BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.2% and the BSE Small Cap index is trading down by 0.5%.

Speaking of Indian benchmark indices, note that overall, the Sensex PE ratio has been in expansion mode over the last five years.

Between the election results of 2014 and 2019, the Sensex PE expanded by 52%.

The chart below shows the change in the Sensex price to earnings (PE) multiple over the last five years of Modi government.

Sensex Rally Driven by PE Expansion in Modi's First Term

What this means is that most of the gains in Modi's first term have come mostly from an expansion of valuation multiples and only partially due to earnings growth.

What are the implications for investors in Modi's second term?

Ankit Shah answers this question in one of the latest edition of The 5 Minute WrapUp. Here's an excerpt of what he wrote...

• In my view, what worked in Modi's first term may not necessarily work in the second one. Back in 2014, you could have put your finger on a random set of stocks, and there were good chances you would make money.
  
  But right now, the circumstances are quite different. The overall markets are trading at elevated valuation multiples. The economy has been showing signs of fatigue. The financial sector is still in a mess. Unemployment levels are high.
  
  For much of Modi's first term, the global markets were in a bull run. However, global economic conditions are not as favourable now. There are growing fears of an impending global slowdown. There has been an escalation in the US-China trade war.
  
  Given all these factors, do not expect the markets to have a broad-based bull run in Modi's second term.

With the elections done, the markets will now move based on earnings visibility, economic policies, global sentiments, and so on.

So, look out for the stocks that will rise fast when the tide of the market turns up.

In the news from the aviation space, Jet Airways share price is in focus today after concerns over a potential government-led investigation surfaced, implying derailment of the revival plan.

According to a report, Hinduja group, which has expressed interest in buying a stake in the airline, is learnt to have sought an assurance from the union government that the investigation would be fast-tracked.

In other news, two operational creditors have dragged the trouble airline to the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT).

Shaman Wheels Pvt Ltd and Gaggar Enterprises Pvt Ltd have filed two separate insolvency pleas against the airline at NCLT in Mumbai for recovery of their dues.

Reportedly, Jet owes Rs 62.8 million to Shaman Wheels, which used to supply trucks and trailers for the airline. The airline's due to Gaggar Enterprises, which sold packaged drinking water to the carrier could not be ascertained immediately.

The airline's total liability, including unpaid salaries and vendor dues, is nearly Rs 150 billion. As Jet has now been referred to the NCLT, under bankruptcy resolution, lenders may recover only a fraction of the Rs 84 billion.

On May 27, lenders decided that they would take a final decision on the fate of Jet Airways in next two weeks, before taking up the last option of filing for bankruptcy.

On 17 April, the airline suspended operations having failed to pay off its creditors and unable to meet the operational cost due to acute lack of funds.

How this all pans out remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we will keep you updated on all the developments from this space.

Moving on to the news from the banking sector, J&K bank share price is witnessing selling pressure today after the government removed the lender's chairman Parvez Ahmad and appointed its executive president RK Chibber as an interim chairman.

As per an article in a leading financial daily, the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) alleged Parvez Ahmed of indulging in unlawful activities.

Here's an excerpt from the article:

• The searches on the premises of the J&K Bank, which started on Saturday after an FIR was lodged by the ACB, concluded on Sunday and revealed involvement of Ahmed in corruption, nepotism and favouritism.

The government said it has decided to take long-term measures to improve the functioning of the bank so that it becomes an example of a well-managed government-owned bank and Ahmad's removal was the first step in that direction.

Reports state that within minutes of the government order, investigators of state vigilance organisation raided the corporate headquarters of the bank.

The Vigilance Organisation was looking for the records of the nearly 1,200 appointments made during the previous PDP-BJP dispensation in the state during Ahmad's tenure as chairman of the bank.

J&K share price is presently trading down by 15%.

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