Indian Indices Finish Strong on Diwali Day; Sensex Closes Up by 245 Points

Wed, 7 Nov Closing

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The hour-long auspicious Muhurat trading session ended on a strong note today. While the BSE-Sensex closed higher by about 245 points, the NSE- Nifty ended higher by about 68 points.

Stocks from auto sector, oil & gas sector and FMCG sector were the most in demand.

BSE Mid Cap and BSE Small Cap also gathered steam with both indices ending higher by 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.

Stocks such as HPCL, Infosys, and Mahindra & Mahindra were the top gainers in today's trading session, while Bharti Airtel and Axis Bank were the top losers.

Manappuram Finance share price was in focus today as the company's board approved an equity infusion of Rs 1 billion to its wholly owned subsidiary Manappuram Home Finance.

In the news from oil & gas sector, shares of oil marketing companies were witnessing buying interest today. Stocks such as BPCL, HPCL, and IOC witnessed buying interest and rose as much as 1.5% today.

In the news from commodity markets, gold lost its sheen and witnessed selling pressure in the Muhrat trading session today. Prices dropped by around Rs 200 to Rs 32,400 per 10 grams at the bullion market today.

However, gold prices recovered from their one-week low levels seen this week. This was seen as investors sought safe-haven from market volatility and uncertainty surrounding the fallout of US mid-term elections results.

Apart from gold, crude oil was witnessing buying interest in the commodity markets. Crude oil prices rebounded to US$ 73 per barrel after falling to their lowest level since August.

Most of the gains for crude oil were seen on the back of a report that stated Russia and Saudi Arabia are discussing oil output cuts in 2019.

Speaking of crude oil, India's crude oil production was lower by 4.2% in September 2018 as compared to last year, as can be seen from the chart below.

India's Increasing Crude Oil Demand Supply Gap

The worrying factor is this was the lowest production this year.

Here's what Tanushree Banerjee wrote about it in a recent edition of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• Comparing domestic production with the crude oil processed by refineries gives an idea of the demand supply gap. Low domestic production as compared to the demand for crude oil places a huge burden on India's import bill.
  
  Rising crude oil prices could have severe implications. Rising inflation. Rising interest rates. Pressure on the government to cut excise duty, thereby impacting its revenues.
  
  We have seen some of this play out. With elections around the corner, expect a lot of subsidies on fuel prices. This is bound to worsen India's fiscal deficit further.

It would be interesting to see how this pans out. Meanwhile, we will keep you updated on all the developments from this space.

Moving on to the news from the currency markets, the US dollar was witnessing selling pressure today as the outcome of a split US Congress raised expectations that any major US fiscal policy boost to the economy is unlikely for now.

The dollar has been trading on a positive note in the global currency markets this year. This is seen on the back of President Donald Trump's fiscal stimulus and strong economic data which has forced the US Federal Reserve to signal higher interest rates.

Speaking of rising dollar, note that the rupee has declined sharply against the US dollar since the start of this year.

A fall in the rupee has many repercussions for the Indian economy. It means importers buying goods and services at a higher rate that earlier. This doesn't bode well for a developing economy that relies heavily on imports.

Also, India imports most of its oil requirements. So, a fall in rupee leads to a consequent rise in the import bill. The depreciation of the rupee will also add to crude oil's rising cost.

On the corporate side, companies who have taken foreign loans from abroad will be impacted. The repayment obligations in terms of principal and interest will rise, leading to a dent in the cash flows and financials.

Further, companies who import a majority of their raw material requirements will get impacted provided they have not hedged their foreign currency exposure.

Looking at the brighter side, rupee depreciation brings a cheer on the exports front.

A depreciating rupee will provide a much-needed cushion to falling exports. However, a falling rupee will not be the only factor to boost exports. There are certain structural issues too which the government needs to address.

Ankit Shah has explained how the depreciation in rupee is linked to foreign investor outflows and forex reserves in one of his editions of Equitymaster Insider. You can read the entire article here (requires subscription).

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